Prediction Of Zverev Vs Fokina H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Alexander Zverev Play Against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?

Zverev and Fokina are on the Day 5 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Sunday 27 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In their head-to-head matches, Alexander Zverev has dominated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, with a 4-1 lead. They first met in the 2020 US Open, where Zverev won in a convincing fashion with a score of 6-2 6-2 6-1. They faced off again in the 2020 Cologne-1 tournament, with Zverev emerging as the victor in the semifinals with a score of 7-5 7-6(3). In the 2021 Roland Garros, Zverev once again proved his superiority, defeating Davidovich Fokina with a score of 6-4 6-1 6-1. However, in the ATP Masters 1000 Toronto in 2023, Davidovich Fokina got his revenge and emerged victorious with a score of 6-1 6-2. Their most recent encounter was in Beijing in the same year, where Zverev reclaimed the upper hand and won with a score of 6-7(4) 6-2 6-1.

Tennis Data Innovations Insights utilizes algorithmic software that analyzes ball and player tracking data in real-time. This allows for the calculation of various statistics, such as shot type, shot quality, situation, phase of play, and tactic for every shot. More information on these insights can be found at https://www.atptour.com/en/news/news-filter-results/insights.

Based on 52-week averages, Zverev seems to excel in several aspects of the game. He has a 27% conversion rate when in an attacking position, a 70% score steal rate, and a 35% serve quality rate. His return quality stands at 8.9, while his forehand quality is 8.4 and his backhand quality is 8.0. On the other hand, Davidovich Fokina has a 24% conversion rate, a 68% score steal rate, and a 36% serve quality rate. His return quality is 7.5, his forehand quality is 7.1, and his backhand quality is 7.4. It is worth noting that the tour average for these statistics is a 24% conversion rate, a 69% score steal rate, a 31% serve quality rate, a return quality of 7.9, a forehand quality of 7.5, and a backhand quality of 7.1.

Alexander Zverev, aged 28, currently holds the world No. 2 ranking, his career-high. In 2025, he has achieved a record of 20 wins and 7 losses, which includes winning the Munich title, and a record of 24 wins and 5 losses in Madrid, where he has won titles in 2018 and 2021. Zverev’s rise to No. 2 came after suffering an injury during the 2022 Roland Garros semifinals against Nadal, where he tore three ligaments in his right ankle. He has had a remarkable career so far, with six titles in 2021, making him the leader on the ATP Tour. In addition, he holds the record for the most career titles among players born since 1990, with 24 titles. Zverev’s notable victories include defeating Djokovic en route to the 2018 Nitto ATP Finals, the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, and the 2021 Nitto ATP Finals championships. He also reached his first Grand Slam final at the 2020 US Open, where he rallied from a two-set deficit to defeat Carreno Busta in the semifinals but ultimately lost to Thiem in the final. He had wins over Nadal and Djokovic at the 2024 Roland Garros and the 2025 Australian Open, respectively. Zverev has also achieved success in the ATP Masters 1000 tournaments, winning the title six times. Notably, he is one of only three players, along with Murray and Thiem, to have defeated Djokovic on hard, Federer on grass, and Nadal on clay. It is important to mention that Zverev is currently on a six-match winning streak after winning the Munich title on his 28th birthday. He aims to reach the R16 in Madrid for the eighth time in as many appearances and join the likes of Nadal, Federer, Djokovic, and Murray as the fifth man to record 25 wins in the tournament’s history.

Looking at the clay ATP Masters 1000 win leaders since the series began in 1990, Zverev has an impressive record of 62 wins and 20 losses in these tournaments. He stands alongside top players like Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Thomas Muster in terms of victories.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, aged 25 and currently ranked world No. 29, achieved his career-high ranking of No. 21 in August 2023. He has consistently improved his year-end ranking for eight consecutive years, finishing 2023 at No. 26. He made a breakthrough in 2022 when he broke Djokovic nine times in their match at the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo, setting a record for the most breaks against Djokovic in a best-of-three-set match. This victory propelled him to his first ATP Tour final. He achieved his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2021 Roland Garros and his first ATP Masters 1000 quarterfinal at the 2021 Monte-Carlo. In 2025, he reached consecutive finals in Delray Beach and Acapulco. During his junior career, he reached the World No. 2 ranking after winning the Wimbledon boys’ singles title and having a 20-1 record in 2017. Outside of tennis, Davidovich Fokina is also known for his love of animals. He has two cats and launched Adoptas.org, a pet adoption platform that connects people interested in adopting or fostering pets with shelters and rescues in Spain. Despite his achievements, Davidovich Fokina’s record against the top three players is not as strong, with a 1-8 record, his only win coming against Djokovic at the 2022 ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo. He is the sole remaining Spanish player in the Madrid draw and aims to match his best result in Madrid to tie Rune and Mensik for the most Top 10 wins on the ATP Tour this season, currently standing at 3-1.

In Madrid tournament history, Spanish players have had limited success against No. 1 seeds, with a record of 2-11. Notably, Rafael Nadal defeated Roger Federer in the 2010 final, and Carlos Alcaraz defeated Novak Djokovic in the 2022 semifinals.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Zverev will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction.