Prediction Of Rune Vs Medvedev H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Bnp Paribas Open 2025?

What Time Will Holger Rune Play Against Daniil Medvedev?

Rune and Medvedev are on the Day 11 Schedule at Bnp Paribas Open 2025 on Saturday 15 March 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Holger Rune of Denmark will be facing Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals of the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo tournament. Medvedev currently leads their head-to-head record with two wins out of three matches. Their previous encounters include a match at the ATP Masters 1000 Rome clay court final, which Medvedev won with a score of 7-5, 7-5. The other matches took place at the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo and Indian Wells tournaments, with Medvedev emerging victorious in both matches.

Holger Rune, aged 21, is currently ranked at No. 13 in the world and has a career-high ranking of No. 4. In 2025, he holds a record of 10 wins and 6 losses, reaching the semi-finals of the Indian Wells tournament. Rune has had a remarkable rise in the rankings, breaking into the Top 100 in January 2022, the Top 50 in May 2022, and the Top 10 in November 2022. He became the highest-ranked Dane in PIF ATP Rankings history, reaching No. 4 in August 2023.

Rune achieved a significant milestone in his career when he won the 2022 ATP Masters 1000 Paris title at the age of 19. He became the first player since the start of the ATP Tour in 1990 to earn five Top-10 wins at an event other than the Nitto ATP Finals. From the 2022 Paris tournament to the 2023 Rome tournament, Rune compiled an impressive record of 18 wins and 5 losses in six ATP Masters 1000 events, finishing as the runner-up in both Monte-Carlo and Rome.

Notably, Rune went on a seven-match winning streak against Top 5 opponents, starting his career with a 7-1 record against the Top 5 players. His victories include wins over World No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz at the 2022 ATP Masters 1000 Paris and World No. 1 Novak Djokovic at the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Rome. After a slow start to the 2022 season, Rune finished the year on a high note with a 19-2 run, including two final appearances. He also made history by reaching the quarter-finals of the 2022 Roland Garros tournament, becoming the first Danish man to achieve this feat and the first Danish player to reach any Grand Slam quarter-final in the Open Era.

In the upcoming match, Rune seeks his fourth ATP Masters 1000 final and first since losing to Medvedev in the 2023 Rome final. He has a record of 17 wins and 23 losses against Top 10 opponents, including a win over World No. 9 Stefanos Tsitsipas. Rune aims to record multiple Top 10 wins in one event for the fourth time in his career. Additionally, he is looking to achieve his 150th tour-level win (currently at 149-91), becoming the second Dane to reach that milestone after Kenneth Carlsen, who has 266 tour-level wins.

On the other hand, Daniil Medvedev, aged 29, is currently ranked No. 6 in the world and has a career-high ranking of No. 1. In 2025, he has a record of 12 wins and 5 losses, reaching two semi-finals. Medvedev spent 16 weeks as the World No. 1 in 2022, making him the tallest player ever to hold that position at 1.98m (6’6″). He became the first player other than Djokovic, Federer, Murray, and Nadal to achieve the No. 1 ranking since Andy Roddick in 2004.

Medvedev is a six-time Grand Slam finalist and owns a 5-3 record against Djokovic when the Serb is ranked as the World No. 1. He famously defeated Djokovic in the 2021 US Open final, denying Djokovic the calendar Grand Slam. Medvedev also achieved a remarkable feat by defeating World No. 1 Djokovic, No. 2 Rafael Nadal, and No. 3 Dominic Thiem on his way to winning the 2020 Nitto ATP Finals. He became the first player to sweep the Top 3 players in the history of the tournament and on the ATP Tour since 2007.

Throughout his career, Medvedev has excelled on hard courts, winning 18 of his 20 singles titles on this surface. He has also won ATP Masters 1000 championships in Cincinnati, Shanghai, Paris, Toronto, Miami, and Rome. Notably, his victory in Rome marked his first title on clay.

In the upcoming match, Medvedev aims to reach his 39th tour-level final, his first since the Indian Wells tournament last year. He also aims to reach his third consecutive final at the Indian Wells venue, where he finished as the runner-up in 2023 and 2024, losing to Alcaraz on both occasions. With a win in the quarter-finals, Medvedev has the opportunity to climb to No. 5 in the ATP rankings, surpassing Ruud and Djokovic.

In terms of historical achievements, Novak Djokovic holds the record for the most ATP Masters 1000 finals with 59, followed by Rafael Nadal with 53 and Roger Federer with 50. Medvedev has reached the finals of the ATP Masters 1000 tournaments on 10 occasions, tying with Andy Murray and Thomas Muster.

In terms of the Indian Wells tournament specifically, the player who has reached the most finals is Roger Federer with 9 appearances. Medvedev aims to reach his third consecutive final in this tournament, joining the likes of Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal, who have achieved this feat in the past.

In summary, Holger Rune and Daniil Medvedev will face off in the quarter-finals of the ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo tournament. Rune has had an impressive rise in the rankings and seeks his fourth ATP Masters 1000 final. Medvedev, a former World No. 1, aims to climb back into the Top 5 and reach his third consecutive final at the Indian Wells venue.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Rune will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Holger Rune vs Daniil Medvedev prediction.