Prediction Of Musetti Vs Diallo H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Lorenzo Musetti Play Against Gabriel Diallo?

Musetti and Diallo are on the Day 9 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Thursday 1 May 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Lorenzo Musetti and Gabriel Diallo will face off in their upcoming match. The series between them is currently tied at 1-1. In their previous encounters, Diallo emerged victorious in the 2023 Davis Cup Group Stage on hard court with a score of 7-5 6-4. However, Musetti got the better of Diallo in their match at the 2025 Hong Kong tournament, winning 6-4 6-3 on a hard court.

Lorenzo Musetti is 23 years old and is currently ranked as the 11th best player in the world. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 11 in April 2025 after reaching his first ATP Masters 1000 final in Monte-Carlo. Notable achievements for Musetti include defeating Carlos Alcaraz in the 2022 Hamburg final, becoming the youngest player to reach an ATP Tour final since 2005. He also won the 2022 Naples title without dropping a set. At the 2024 Paris Olympics, Musetti upset Alexander Zverev and won the bronze medal. He had a successful 2024 season, earning a personal-best 40 wins and reaching the semifinals at Wimbledon, as well as the finals at Stuttgart and London/Queen’s Club. In the 2023 Monte-Carlo tournament, he recorded his first 6-0 6-0 victory at the ATP Masters 1000 level since 2016 and upset the world No. 1, Novak Djokovic, in the third round. Musetti has a strong clay court record since July, going 17-3, including winning a bronze medal at the Paris Olympics and reaching the final in Monte-Carlo.

Gabriel Diallo is also 23 years old and is currently ranked as the 78th best player in the world. He broke into the top 100 in October 2024 and achieved his career-high ranking of No. 78 in April 2025. Diallo made his tour-level debut at the 2022 Davis Cup Finals and earned his first ATP Tour win by defeating the 21st ranked player, Daniel Evans, in the first round of the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Toronto as a wildcard. He defeated Musetti in the 2023 Davis Cup Finals round-robin stage, helping Canada qualify for the quarter-finals. Diallo also reached the third round of the 2024 US Open as a qualifier. In the Challenger circuit, he holds a record of 65-37, winning his first title at the 2022 Granby tournament as a wildcard ranked 519th. Diallo played for the University of Kentucky before turning professional at the end of 2022. In the current season, he entered the draw as a lucky loser in three out of four ATP Masters 1000 events and saved three match points to defeat Grigor Dimitrov and reach his first career ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final. Diallo has a 2-6 record against top 20 players, including his victory over Musetti in the 2023 Davis Cup.

The match between Musetti and Diallo will take place at the Arantxa Sanchez Stadium. Musetti has a chance to break into the top 10 of the ATP rankings with a win in the quarter-finals, currently being ranked at No. 9. If he does so, he will become the third-youngest Italian man to achieve this feat. Joining Musetti in the top 10 would make him and Jannik Sinner the second Italian duo to be ranked in the top 10, following Berrettini and Sinner’s accomplishment from November 2022 to March 2023. Diallo, on the other hand, has risen 25 spots to No. 53 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings and has the opportunity to reach No. 47 if he becomes the fifth Canadian ATP Masters 1000 semi-finalist.

In summary, Musetti and Diallo have had previous encounters, with Diallo winning at the Davis Cup and Musetti emerging victorious in Hong Kong. Musetti has achieved impressive milestones and has a strong clay court record, while Diallo has had notable performances and has entered the ATP Masters 1000 events as a lucky loser multiple times this season. The upcoming match between the two will take place at the Arantxa Sanchez Stadium.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Musetti will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Lorenzo Musetti vs Gabriel Diallo, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Lorenzo Musetti vs Gabriel Diallo prediction.