Prediction Of Hurkacz Vs Minaur H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Bnp Paribas Open 2025?

What Time Will Hubert Hurkacz Play Against Alex de Minaur?

Hurkacz and Minaur are on the Day 6 Schedule at Bnp Paribas Open 2025 on Monday 10 March 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In their head-to-head series, Hubert Hurkacz from Poland and Alex de Minaur from Australia are currently tied at 1-1. Their previous matches include a hard court match in Atlanta, where de Minaur won in a thrilling three-set match with a score of 1-6, 7-6(0), 7-6(5). They also faced off on clay in Madrid, where Hurkacz emerged victorious with a score of 6-3, 6-4.

Analyzing their performance based on their 52-week averages, we can observe some interesting insights. Hurkacz boasts a top 10 serve quality, averaging 126 mph on his first serve with an accuracy of 53 cm from the sideline, compared to the tour average of 58 cm. This strong serve helps him achieve a top 20 in attack score. On the other hand, de Minaur possesses a top 10 return quality and ranks 3rd in the world in steal score. Considering that the average steal score at Indian Wells is 4% higher than the tour average, this could work in de Minaur’s favor in the match.

Hubert Hurkacz, aged 28 and currently ranked 22nd in the world, holds the distinction of being the top Polish men’s player in history. He ended 2021 and 2023 at a year-end career-high ranking of No. 9 after participating in the Nitto ATP Finals. He achieved his career-high ranking of No. 6 in August 2024. Notably, he entered the 2021 Wimbledon on a six-match losing streak but managed to reach his first Grand Slam semifinal by defeating the eight-time champion Roger Federer. He has also recorded impressive victories, such as upsetting 5 seeds to win the 2021 ATP Masters 1000 Miami title and saving a championship point to win the 2023 ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai. Additionally, he reached the semifinals of ATP Masters 1000 tournaments in Paris, Miami, and Cincinnati, and won ATP Masters 1000 doubles titles in Paris with Auger-Aliassime and in Miami with Isner. Despite his successes, he has a record of 18-35 against top 10 players. At Indian Wells, he reached the fourth round in his first three appearances (2019, 2021 quarterfinals, and 2022 fourth round), but lost in the third round in 2023 and the second round in the previous year.

Alex de Minaur, aged 26 and currently ranked 10th in the world, reached a career-high ranking of No. 6 in July 2024. He became the first Australian since Hewitt in 2004 to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals in singles. He achieved his personal-best tally of 47 victories in 2022 and 2024 and secured his biggest titles at the Acapulco tournaments in 2023 and 2024. He reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2020 US Open, immediately after winning his first ATP Tour doubles title at the 2020 ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati with Carreno Busta. He has also reached the quarterfinals of Grand Slam tournaments at Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the US Open, as well as the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final of ATP Masters 1000 events at Toronto in 2023. Representing Australia, he went 6-1 in Davis Cup play during the 2022 season and defeated No. 2 Nadal in 2023 and No. 1 Djokovic in 2024 at the United Cup. He comes from a multicultural background, with a Uruguayan father and a Spanish mother, and he splits his time between Australia and Spain, being fluent in English, Spanish, and French. Notably, he needs one more victory to reach his 50th ATP Masters 1000 win, and if achieved, he will become the fifth Australian player to reach this milestone in series history. In 2025, he has a record of 14-4, including a recent appearance in the Rotterdam final.

Finally, in terms of the 2025 ATP Tour win leaders, Felix Auger-Aliassime holds the top spot with a record of 16-5 and titles in Adelaide and Montpellier. Alex de Minaur follows closely with a record of 14-4 and a runner-up finish in Rotterdam. Jiri Lehecka, Zizou Bergs, and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina complete the top five in terms of wins this year. Carlos Alcaraz seeks his 13th win of 2025 on Monday.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Hurkacz will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Hubert Hurkacz vs Alex de Minaur, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Hubert Hurkacz vs Alex de Minaur prediction.