Prediction Of Draper Vs Alcaraz H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Bnp Paribas Open 2025?

What Time Will Jack Draper Play Against Carlos Alcaraz?

Draper and Alcaraz are on the Day 11 Schedule at Bnp Paribas Open 2025 on Saturday 15 March 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In their previous meetings, Carlos Alcaraz has the advantage over Jack Draper with a 3-1 head-to-head record. They have faced each other at various tournaments on different surfaces. Alcaraz defeated Draper in their most recent encounter at the Basel tournament in Switzerland on hard courts, with a score of 3-6, 6-2, 7-5. Alcaraz also emerged victorious at the ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells tournament in the United States on hard courts, where Draper was forced to retire in the second set, with the score at 6-2, 2-0. However, Draper managed to defeat Alcaraz on grass courts at the Queen’s Club tournament in London, with a score of 7-6(3), 6-3. Their first meeting took place at the Australian Open on hard courts, with Alcaraz winning convincingly with a score of 7-5, 6-1, as Draper retired from the match.

Jack Draper, a 23-year-old British player, is currently ranked 14th in the world, which is his career-high ranking. Throughout 2025, he has achieved an impressive record of 11 wins and 2 losses, including reaching the final of the Doha tournament. Draper has been steadily climbing the rankings, reaching new career-high positions 22 times in 2022. He broke into the top 200 in February, the top 100 in June, and the top 50 in September. Draper’s notable achievements include reaching the semi-finals of the 2024 US Open without dropping a set, becoming the fourth British man in the open era to achieve this feat. He also won his first ATP Tour title by defeating two-time champion Matteo Berrettini in the final of the 2024 Stuttgart tournament. Additionally, Draper had a significant victory in his career by defeating the then No. 2 player in the world, Carlos Alcaraz, at the Queen’s Club tournament. He has had a successful year, including winning the biggest title of his career at the 2024 Vienna tournament, becoming the first man to win on his tournament debut since Andy Murray in 2014. Draper’s achievements in 2022 include reaching the semi-finals at Eastbourne as a wild card, defeating top 10 players Stefanos Tsitsipas and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the process.

Carlos Alcaraz, a 21-year-old Spanish player, is currently ranked 3rd in the world, which is his career-high ranking. He has had an outstanding year in 2025, with a record of 15 wins and 2 losses, including winning the Rotterdam tournament. Alcaraz made history as the youngest player and first teenager to reach the No. 1 ranking in the PIF ATP Rankings, achieving this feat at the age of 19 in September 2022. He held the top spot for a total of 36 weeks, rising from No. 32 at the end of 2021. Alcaraz became the youngest men’s champion at the US Open since Pete Sampras in 1990 when he defeated Casper Ruud in the final. He also became the youngest player to win a Grand Slam title on all three surfaces by winning the 2024 Roland Garros, which included fifth-set victories over Jannik Sinner in the semi-finals and Alexander Zverev in the final. Alcaraz had significant victories over Novak Djokovic, a seven-time champion, in the Wimbledon finals in 2023 and 2024. He became the second man in the Open Era to win his first four Grand Slam finals and earned a silver medal at the Paris Olympics, becoming the youngest men’s finalist since 1904. Alcaraz has also claimed titles at the ATP 500 Rio de Janeiro and the ATP Masters 1000 Miami tournaments. He has been dominant at the ATP Masters 1000 Indian Wells event, currently enjoying a 16-match winning streak and aiming to become the first player born in 1991 or later to win the tournament three times in a row.

If Jack Draper wins the match against Carlos Alcaraz, he will achieve a top 10 debut in the ATP Rankings. Draper is playing in his first ATP Masters 1000 semi-final and has the opportunity to earn his fourth career victory against a top 5 player. The last time a British player achieved multiple top 5 wins in a single event was Andy Murray, who accomplished this feat with four victories in the 2016 Nitto ATP Finals. Draper is currently ranked 11th on the PIF ATP Rankings and would move up to the 8th position with a win.

Throughout the history of the tournament, there have been several left-handed finalists. Rafael Nadal has reached the finals of the tournament on five occasions, while Cameron Norrie, Marcelo Rios, and Greg Rusedski have each reached the finals once. In the history of the ATP Masters 1000 series, there have been multiple British finalists in the event. Andy Murray leads the way with 21 finals, including the 2009 Indian Wells final, with his most recent final appearance in 2016 Paris. Tim Henman has reached the finals four times, while Greg Rusedski has reached the finals twice. Cameron Norrie reached the finals once at the 2021 Indian Wells tournament.

In terms of ATP Masters 1000 tournaments, Carlos Alcaraz has a significant presence. With six finals to his name, he is tied with David Ferrer for the second-most finals reached by a Spaniard. Rafael Nadal leads the way with an impressive 53 finals. Alcaraz aims to become the first player born in 1991 or later to win the same ATP Tour event three times in a row. He also has a remarkable record in tour-level semi-finals, currently standing at 6-0 since March of the previous year.

There have been a few players who have achieved three consecutive victories at ATP Masters 1000 events. Andre Agassi accomplished this at the Miami tournament from 2001 to 2003, while Roger Federer achieved it at Indian Wells from 2004 to 2006. Rafael Nadal achieved this feat twice, at the Monte-Carlo tournament from 2005 to 2012 and 2016 to 2018, and at the Rome tournament from 2005 to 2007. Novak Djokovic also had three consecutive victories at different tournaments, winning in Paris from 2013 to 2015, Indian Wells from 2014 to 2016, and Miami from 2014 to 2016.

In conclusion, the upcoming singles final between Jack Draper and Carlos Alcaraz promises an exciting match between two talented players. While Alcaraz has the overall advantage in their head-to-head record, Draper has had significant victories over higher-ranked opponents in the past. Alcaraz has had a standout year, achieving the No. 1 ranking at a young age and accomplishing numerous milestones. Both players will be looking to add another title to their respective careers.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Draper will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Jack Draper vs Carlos Alcaraz, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Jack Draper vs Carlos Alcaraz prediction.