Prediction Of Borges Vs Busta H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Nuno Borges Play Against Pablo Carreno Busta?

Borges and Busta are on the Day 1 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Wednesday 23 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Nuno Borges, representing Portugal, will be facing off against Pablo Carreno Busta from Spain. This will be their first meeting in a tennis match. The data for this match will be analyzed by Tennis Data Innovations Insights, which utilizes algorithmic software to process real-time ball and player tracking data. This software calculates various factors such as shot type, shot quality, situation, phase of play, and tactic for every shot. More information about these insights can be found at https://www.atptour.com/en/news/news-filter-results/insights.

Insights obtained from the 52-week averages show the following statistics for both players:
– Player In Attack Conversion: Borges – 22%, Carreno Busta – 21%
– Score Steal Score: Borges – 68%, Carreno Busta – 71%
– Serve Quality: Borges – 35%, Carreno Busta – 33%
– Return Quality: Borges – 7.7, Carreno Busta – 7.4
– Forehand Quality: Borges – 5.9, Carreno Busta – 5.9
– Backhand Quality: Borges – 7.4, Carreno Busta – 7.0
The average statistics across the tour are as follows:
– Player In Attack Conversion: 24%
– Score Steal Score: 69%
– Serve Quality: 31%
– Return Quality: 7.9
– Forehand Quality: 6.5
– Backhand Quality: 7.5

Nuno Borges is 28 years old and currently ranked 41st in the world. His career-high ranking was 30th, achieved in September 2024. In the year 2025, he has a record of 14 wins and 11 losses, reaching the semifinals in Auckland. In the Madrid tournament, he has a record of 0 wins and 2 losses, being eliminated in the first round in 2023 and 2024.

Some notable achievements of Nuno Borges include:
– Becoming the second Portuguese man to break into the Top 50 in PIF ATP Rankings history in 2024. He reached a career-high of No. 30 after saving 3 match points against Mensik in the US Open 4th round.
– Winning his first ATP Tour title at the 2024 Bastad tournament. This victory placed him alongside Djokovic, Federer, Murray, and Zeballos as the only men to defeat Nadal in an ATP Tour final on clay.
– Defeating No. 13 Dimitrov to reach the fourth round of the 2024 Australian Open, becoming the first Portuguese player to achieve this feat in the tournament’s history.
– Participating in 10 Challenger finals and winning titles in tournaments such as Antalya-3 in 2021, Barletta in 2022, Monterrey in 2023, Phoenix in 2023-24, and Maia in 2023 (his hometown).
– During his time at Mississippi State University, he was a five-time All-American and had a 31-match win streak that ended in the 2019 NCAA singles final, where he lost to Jubb.

Notably, Nuno Borges aims to become the second Portuguese man, alongside J. Sousa, to achieve main draw wins in tournament history. In previous editions of the Madrid tournament, he was defeated in the first round by Giron in 2023 and Munar in 2024. However, this season, he has a record of 9 wins and 1 loss in his opening rounds, with his only loss coming against No. 51 Bergs in the ATP Masters 1000 Miami 1st round.

Pablo Carreno Busta is 33 years old and is currently ranked 96th in the world. His career-high ranking was 10th in singles and 16th in doubles, both achieved during the 2017 season. In 2025, he has a record of 3 wins and 6 losses, reaching the second round twice. In previous editions of the Madrid tournament, he has a record of 1 win and 7 losses, with his only win coming against No. 28 Dimitrov in the 2016 first round.

Some notable achievements of Pablo Carreno Busta include:
– Winning 7 singles titles and 4 doubles titles throughout his career. He reached a career-high of No. 10 in singles and No. 16 in doubles in 2017.
– Capturing the 2022 Montreal championship, becoming one of the fifteen different Spaniards to win an ATP Masters 1000 title since the start of the series in 1990.
– Achieving a bronze medal at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics (held in 2021) by defeating No. 1 Djokovic and No. 2 Medvedev.
– Reaching the semifinals in the US Open and the quarterfinals in Roland Garros in 2017 and 2020. He also reached the doubles final in the 2016 US Open alongside his compatriot Garcia-Lopez.
– Being a member of the 2019 Davis Cup championship team and helping Team Spain reach the ATP Cup finals in 2020 (with a 5-1 doubles record) and 2022 (with a 4-1 singles record).

Pablo Carreno Busta is playing in the Madrid tournament for the first time since 2022. He aims to secure his second win at the event after defeating No. 28 Dimitrov in the 2016 first round. Additionally, this will be his first ATP Masters 1000 event on clay since 2022 Rome, where he defeated Delbonis in the first round. He is currently looking for his first top 50 win on clay since defeating No. 14 Schwartzman in the 2022 Bastad quarterfinals.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Borges will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Nuno Borges vs Pablo Carreno Busta, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Nuno Borges vs Pablo Carreno Busta prediction.