Access all the information regarding the gambling market for the Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz match for the U.S. Open – New York 2025 on the September 7, 2025, in this preview below. We reveal the Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz picks, betting tips and odds for this match in the our preview beneath.
Who The Odds Favor: Jannik Sinner to get the victory
- Calculated via the sportsbook odds, Jannik Sinner is the favorite to win in this match with a 51.03% chance to win. Is this accurate? Yes, as Oddsmakers has their metrics figured out:
Jannik Sinner → 1.91
Carlos Alcaraz → 1.99Prediction Chance Of Win Carlos Alcaraz 48.97 % Jannik Sinner 51.03 % Above is implied from odds. Login now to reveal our expert picks.
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Prediction Based On Head-2-Head: Carlos Alcaraz to secure victory
| Team | Head-To-Head Match Wins |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 5 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 10 |
Head-2-Head: Jannik Sinner (5 – 10) Carlos Alcaraz.
Carlos Alcaraz to win. The reason? In the last 15 H2H encounters between them, Carlos Alcaraz is up 5 – 10. Our head-to-head data starts from the battle they had in 2023. This implies that Carlos Alcaraz is likely to get the victory in this upcoming face-off. The last meeting took place on the Mon, 18 Aug 25, Where Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner ended in 5-ret. – 0- draw.
Jannik Sinner has never got the win against Carlos Alcaraz indicating they have a low probability.
Form-Based Prediction: Evenly matched
Looking at recent form before this game, Jannik Sinner triumphed versus Felix Auger Aliassime with a result of 6-3-6-6/1-6-3-4. Carlos Alcaraz got the win versus Novak Djokovic with a result of 6-7-6/4-6(4)-2. Jannik Sinner have won 9 of their recent 10 fixtures vs all teams, while Carlos Alcaraz won 9 of their last 10 matches versus all opponents, indicating maybe this match is too close to call.
Recent Form Prediction: Close to call
- Jannik Sinner has won 9 of the last 10 matches played, while Carlos Alcaraz has secured 10 victories over the same range.
- Jannik Sinner has been winning 39% of their own second serve points, and 39% of their opponents, while Carlos Alcaraz has won 46% of their second serve points and 42% of their opponents.
- Jannik Sinner comes into this match having won a 3 hours 21 min battle vs Felix Auger Aliassime in which he managed to win 46% of return points (240/520), hitting 44 aces himself during the match.
- Carlos Alcaraz comes into this match having won a 2 hours 23 min battle vs Novak Djokovic in which he managed to win 43% of return points (228/533), hitting 38 aces himself during the match.
- In this event so far Jannik Sinner has been holding serve 95% of the time (80/84), while Carlos Alcaraz has held their serve 98% of the time (82/84.
Career Performance Prediction: Close to call
- Jannik Sinner has a career high ranking of 1, while Carlos Alcaraz has a career high rank of 2.
- Jannik Sinner has claimed 26 Career titles and career earnings of $3,40,47,675, versus 30 trophies for Carlos Alcaraz and $3,69,96,665 prize money.
- Jannik Sinner has a 63% deciding set win % (38/60), compared to 63% for Carlos Alcaraz (24/38)
- The 1st serve of Jannik Sinner has resulted in him winning 59% of points, and Carlos Alcaraz has won 64% of their first serve points.
- Second serve points won, is 55% for Jannik Sinner and 57% for Carlos Alcaraz.
- After losing the first set, Jannik Sinner manages to turn the match around and win it 45% of the time, and Carlos Alcaraz has a 41% record in eventually winning the match.
