Joao Fonseca vs Kei Nishikori Prediction – ATP – 16th March 2025 Best Bets

Joao Fonseca and Kei Nishikori Prediction Head To Head Summary

Fonseca vs Nishikori Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Nishikori has a 51.77% win this match.

Fonseca → 1.61. Nishikori → 2.26.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Fonseca vs Nishikori Upcoming Match Details:

Fonseca will play Nishikori on Hard court in the Semifinals at the ATP Phoenix Challenger Men’s Singles 2025 on 16th March 2025.

Head-to-Head: Fonseca 0-0 Nishikori

The current Head to Head score is 0-0. Fonseca comes into this match with a ranking of 80 , while Nishikori is ranked 76.

Fonseca vs Nishikori Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Nishikori has won 46% of points on his second serve, while Fonseca has won 49% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Nishikori has won 27% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Fonseca has won 27%. The same stats for second serve return points are 49% and 43% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Nishikori has been saving 51% of his breakpoints, and Fonseca has saved 58% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Nishikori performs best on I.hard, winning 71% (W/L 110/45) and worse career win % on Grass, winning 63% (W/L 48/28). Fonseca performs best on Hard, winning 76% (W/L 22/7), and performs worse on Grass, winning 33% (W/L 2/4).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Kei Nishikori has converted 32% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Joao Fonseca has converted 31% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Joao Fonseca played Hugo Gaston in the Quarterfinals at the Phoenix Challenger and won 6-4 6-4 in 01:10:19 . Kei Nishikori played Flavio Cobolli in the Quarterfinals at the Phoenix Challenger and won 6-2 4-6 6-4 in 02:12:02.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Joao Fonseca and Kei Nishikori

Of their last 10 matches played, Fonseca has won 8, while Nishikori has won 5. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Hard . In recent matches, Fonseca has won 55% of his own 2nd serve points and 39% of return points , while Nishikori has won 55% of his own 2nd serve points and 37% of return points.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Fonseca Vs Nishikori

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Fonseca has won 3 titles in his career, while Kei Nishikori has won 30 events. Fonseca has won 51% (7754 of 15151) of points played in his entire career, and Nishikori has achieved 52% (61139 of 118254). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Fonseca has won 65% of tie breaks in his entire career (24 of 37), whereas Kei Nishikori has won 59% (165 of 281). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Kei Nishikori has an 51.77% probability of winning this match.

Joao Fonseca vs Kei Nishikori Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Kei Nishikori To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Joao Fonseca has a 48.23% chance of winning and Kei Nishikori has a 51.77% chance of taking the victory. We tip Nishikori to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

Value Bets For Joao Fonseca vs Kei Nishikori

A value bet in tennis is identified when the odds offered by bookmakers provide a return higher than the actual probability of the event happening. This type of bet suggests that the bettor has a tip edge over the sportsbook. To calculate a value bet, one multiplies the decimal odds by their estimated probability of the outcome and subtracts 1. If the result is greater than 0, the bet is considered to have value. This strategy requires thorough research and understanding of various factors such as player performance, head-to-head statistics, surface preference, and current form. Finding value bets is a key strategy for achieving long-term success in tennis betting, emphasizing the importance of patience, discipline, and continuous learning in the betting process. Anyone joining our tennis betting predictions club gets all values calculated automatically to ensure the most accurate picks and tips.

To see all live tennis scores for the Phoenix Challenger, go here.