Alexander Bublik vs Joao Fonseca Prediction – ATP – 17th March 2025 Best Bets

Alexander Bublik and Joao Fonseca Prediction Head To Head Summary

Bublik vs Fonseca Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Fonseca has a 58.14% win this match.

Bublik → 3.35. Fonseca → 1.34.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Bublik vs Fonseca Upcoming Match Details:

Bublik will play Fonseca on Hard court in the Final at the ATP Phoenix Challenger Men’s Singles 2025 on 17th March 2025.

Head-to-Head: Bublik 0-0 Fonseca

The current Head to Head score is 0-0. Bublik comes into this match with a ranking of 82 , while Fonseca is ranked 80.

Bublik vs Fonseca Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Fonseca has won 49% of points on his second serve, while Bublik has won 43% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Fonseca has won 26% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Bublik has won 21%. The same stats for second serve return points are 43% and 48% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Fonseca has been saving 57% of his breakpoints, and Bublik has saved 58% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Fonseca performs best on Hard, winning 77% (W/L 23/7) and worse career win % on Grass, winning 33% (W/L 2/4). Bublik performs best on I.hard, winning 62% (W/L 109/67), and performs worse on Clay, winning 49% (W/L 57/60).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Joao Fonseca has converted 31% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Alexander Bublik has converted 30% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Alexander Bublik played Nuno Borges in the Semifinals at the Phoenix Challenger and won 6-3 6-4 in 01:05:10 . Joao Fonseca played Kei Nishikori in the Semifinals at the Phoenix Challenger and won 6-3 6-3 in 01:07:47.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Alexander Bublik and Joao Fonseca

Of their last 10 matches played, Bublik has won 5, while Fonseca has won 8. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Hard . In recent matches, Bublik has won 41% of his own 2nd serve points and 35% of return points , while Fonseca has won 55% of his own 2nd serve points and 39% of return points.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Bublik Vs Fonseca

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Bublik has won 17 titles in his career, while Joao Fonseca has won 3 events. Bublik has won 50% (43343 of 86523) of points played in his entire career, and Fonseca has achieved 51% (7816 of 15257). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Bublik has won 53% of tie breaks in his entire career (131 of 246), whereas Joao Fonseca has won 65% (24 of 37). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Joao Fonseca has an 58.14% probability of winning this match.

Alexander Bublik vs Joao Fonseca Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Joao Fonseca To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Alexander Bublik has a 41.86% chance of winning and Joao Fonseca has a 58.14% chance of taking the victory. We tip Fonseca to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

Value Bets For Alexander Bublik vs Joao Fonseca

A value bet in tennis is identified when the odds offered by bookmakers provide a return higher than the actual probability of the event happening. This type of bet suggests that the bettor has a tip edge over the sportsbook. To calculate a value bet, one multiplies the decimal odds by their estimated probability of the outcome and subtracts 1. If the result is greater than 0, the bet is considered to have value. This strategy requires thorough research and understanding of various factors such as player performance, head-to-head statistics, surface preference, and current form. Finding value bets is a key strategy for achieving long-term success in tennis betting, emphasizing the importance of patience, discipline, and continuous learning in the betting process. Anyone joining our tennis betting predictions club gets all values calculated automatically to ensure the most accurate picks and tips.

To see all live tennis scores for the Phoenix Challenger, go here.