Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Prediction – ATP Nordea Open – 18th July 2025 Best Bets

Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi Prediction Head To Head Summary

Baez vs Darderi Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Baez has a 52.91% chance to win this match.

Baez → 1.89. Darderi → 1.92.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Baez vs Darderi Upcoming Match Details:

Baez will play Darderi on Clay court in the Quarterfinals at the ATP Nordea Open event in Bastad Men’s Singles 2025 on 18th July 2025.

Head-to-Head: Baez 4-1 Darderi

The current Head to Head score is 4-1. Baez comes into this match with a ranking of 37 , while Darderi is ranked 55.

Baez vs Darderi Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Darderi has won 49% of points on his second serve, while Baez has won 45% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Darderi has won 26% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Baez has won 34%. The same stats for second serve return points are 43% and 46% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Darderi has been saving 60% of his breakpoints, and Baez has saved 51% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Darderi performs best on Clay, winning 63% (W/L 170/98) and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 17% (W/L 1/5). Baez performs best on Clay, winning 70% (W/L 229/100), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 14% (W/L 3/19).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Luciano Darderi has converted 27% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Sebastian Baez has converted 36% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Sebastian Baez played Nicolai Budkov Kjaer in the Second round at the Nordea Open – Bastad and won 3-6 6-2 7-5 in 02:04:29 . Luciano Darderi played Elias Ymer in the Second round at the Nordea Open – Bastad and won 6-2 6-2 in 01:11:59.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi

Of their last 10 matches played, Baez has won 2, while Darderi has won 4. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Clay in recent matches, Baez has won 53% of his own 2nd serve points and 42% of return points, versus an average opponent rank of 124.97 , while Darderi has won 54% of his own 2nd serve points and 42% of return points, against an average opponent rank of 172.65.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Baez Vs Darderi

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Baez has won 18 titles in his career, while Luciano Darderi has won 7 events. Baez has won 51% (31815 of 61856) of points played in his entire career, and Darderi has achieved 51% (24431 of 47615). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Baez has won 51% of tie breaks in his entire career (67 of 131), whereas Luciano Darderi has won 51% (53 of 103). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Sebastian Baez has an 51.49% probability of winning this match.

Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Sebastian Baez To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Sebastian Baez has a 51.49% chance of winning and Luciano Darderi has a 48.51% chance of taking the victory. We tip Baez to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

To see all live tennis scores for the Nordea Open – Bastad, go here.

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Sebastian Baez

• Baez vs Jong H2H () , could play in The Final
• Baez vs Misolic H2H () , could play in The Final
• Baez vs Carabelli H2H () , could play in The Final
• Dzumhur vs Baez H2H () , could play in The Semifinals
• Cerundolo vs Baez H2H () , could play in The Semifinals

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Luciano Darderi

• Darderi vs Jong H2H (undefined), could play in The Final
• Darderi vs Misolic H2H (undefined), could play in The Final
• Darderi vs Carabelli H2H (undefined), could play in The Final
• Dzumhur vs Darderi H2H (undefined), could play in The Semifinals
• Cerundolo vs Darderi H2H (undefined), could play in The Semifinals