Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner Prediction Head To Head Summary
Alcaraz vs Sinner Prediction:
Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Alcaraz has a 59.88% chance to win this match.
Alcaraz → 2.32. Sinner → 1.67.
BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.
Alcaraz vs Sinner Upcoming Match Details:
Alcaraz will play Sinner on I.hard court in the Final at the ATP Nitto ATP Finals event in Turin Men’s Singles 2025 on 16th November 2025.
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 11-5 Sinner
The current Head to Head score is 11-5. Alcaraz comes into this match with a ranking of 1 , while Sinner is ranked 2.
Alcaraz vs Sinner Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:
- Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Sinner has won 41% of points on his second serve, while Alcaraz has won 47% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
- Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Sinner has won 20% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Alcaraz has won 24%. The same stats for second serve return points are 40% and 41% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
- Performance under pressure prediction: Sinner has been saving 54% of his breakpoints, and Alcaraz has saved 55% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Surface prediction: Sinner performs best on I.hard, winning 82% (W/L 114/25) and worse career win % on Clay, winning 69% (W/L 98/45). Alcaraz performs best on Grass, winning 90% (W/L 35/4), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 70% (W/L 35/15).
- In play break point conversion prediction: Jannik Sinner has converted 22% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Carlos Alcaraz has converted 30% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
- Last match played: In the match before this one, Carlos Alcaraz played Felix Auger Aliassime in the Semifinals at the Nitto ATP Finals – Turin and won 6-2 6-4 in 01:22:57 . Jannik Sinner played Alex De Minaur in the Semifinals at the Nitto ATP Finals – Turin and won 7-5 6-2 in 01:52:24.
Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents
Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.
See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Alcaraz Vs Sinner
Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:
Alcaraz has won 32 titles in his career, while Jannik Sinner has won 30 events. Alcaraz has won 53% (36933 of 69165) of points played in his entire career, and Sinner has achieved 53% (42562 of 79775). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Alcaraz has won 65% of tie breaks in his entire career (118 of 182), whereas Jannik Sinner has won 64% (126 of 198). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Carlos Alcaraz has an 56.26% probability of winning this match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jannik Sinner Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz To Get The Win
After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Carlos Alcaraz has a 56.26% chance of winning and Jannik Sinner has a 43.74% chance of taking the victory. We tip Alcaraz to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds
To see all live tennis scores for the Nitto ATP Finals – Turin.
