Carlos Alcaraz and Alex De Minaur Prediction Head To Head Summary
Alcaraz vs Minaur Prediction:
Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Minaur has a 75.19% chance to win this match.
Alcaraz → 1.33. Minaur → 3.7.
BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.
Alcaraz vs Minaur Upcoming Match Details:
Alcaraz will play Minaur on I.hard court in the Robin round at the ATP Nitto ATP Finals event in Turin Men’s Singles 2025 on 9th November 2025.
Head-to-Head: Alcaraz 4-0 Minaur
The current Head to Head score is 4-0. Alcaraz comes into this match with a ranking of 2 , while Minaur is ranked 7.
Alcaraz vs Minaur Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:
- Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Minaur has won 46% of points on his second serve, while Alcaraz has won 46% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
- Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Minaur has won 24% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Alcaraz has won 24%. The same stats for second serve return points are 43% and 42% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
- Performance under pressure prediction: Minaur has been saving 56% of his breakpoints, and Alcaraz has saved 55% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Surface prediction: Minaur performs best on Grass, winning 68% (W/L 54/25) and worse career win % on Clay, winning 57% (W/L 75/56). Alcaraz performs best on Grass, winning 90% (W/L 35/4), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 67% (W/L 31/15).
- In play break point conversion prediction: Alex De Minaur has converted 27% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Carlos Alcaraz has converted 32% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
- Last match played: In the match before this one, Carlos Alcaraz played Cameron Norrie in the Second round at the Rolex Paris Masters – Paris and lost 4-6 6-3 6-4 in 02:22:57 . Alex De Minaur played Alexander Bublik in the Quarterfinals at the Rolex Paris Masters – Paris and lost 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5 in 02:22:59.
Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents
Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.
See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Alcaraz Vs Minaur
Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:
Alcaraz has won 32 titles in his career, while Alex De Minaur has won 14 events. Alcaraz has won 53% (36609 of 68577) of points played in his entire career, and Minaur has achieved 52% (48930 of 94557). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Alcaraz has won 65% of tie breaks in his entire career (117 of 180), whereas Alex De Minaur has won 56% (131 of 232). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Alex De Minaur has an 52.89% probability of winning this match.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex De Minaur Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Alex De Minaur To Get The Win
After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Carlos Alcaraz has a 47.11% chance of winning and Alex De Minaur has a 52.89% chance of taking the victory. We tip Minaur to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds
To see all live tennis scores for the Nitto ATP Finals – Turin.
