The China Open is back in Beijing, and the men’s draw looks loaded with shot makers, big servers, and a few very dangerous teenagers. The tournament runs from September 25 to October 1, 2025, and it’s an ATP 500 event that often sets the tone for the rest of the Asian swing. As of today, qualifying has wrapped and the main draw is set, with Round of 32 matches about to begin.
Before the main draw kicks off, qualifying took center stage. We already have qualifying results on the board, for example David Goffin survived a tough three setter to move through. The rest of the qualies have set the stage for a few “unknown” names to test the big guns in the first round. The key point is that the main draw of the Round of 32 is about to start, and there are a lot of different scenarios that could take place this year.
The Round of 32: Who’s Playing?
The official draw gives us a clear picture of the first round. If you’re wondering about how to bet on tennis and win, now might be a good moment to place your wagers for better odds. The mix of shot makers, slicers, and versatile players means you’ll likely see a lot of momentum swings and shorter, more explosive rallies rather than long points. Here’s how the Round of 32 shapes up in singles:
Top half highlights
- Jannik Sinner (1) vs Marin Cilic, plus a wild card Zhang Zhizhen in the same quadrant. We also have Benjamin Bonzi vs Fabian Morozsan, Alexandre Muller vs Karen Khachanov (5), and Alex de Minaur (3) opening against a Chinese wild card Bu.
- There are more local storylines too. Shang Juncheng got a wild card and lands in a section with Tomas Etcheverry and qualifiers, so there’s a path if he starts fast. Miomir Kecmanovic draws Jakub Mensik (7), which is a sneaky good matchup between timing and power. Andrey Rublev (6) faces Flavio Cobolli, while the section also includes Learner Tien, Francisco Cerundolo, and Alexander Bublik, with one of those men likely to run into a seed early.
Bottom half highlights
- Lorenzo Musetti (4) meets Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, a huge serve and first strike threat in a best of three format. Daniil Medvedev (8) opens against Cameron Norrie, which is a tough Round 32 draw on paper for both. We also have Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Corentin Moutet vs Tallon Griekspoor, Lorenzo Sonego vs Alexander Zverev (2), and more potential upsets.
Where The World’s Top Five Fit In?
The current top five in the ATP rankings are Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Novak Djokovic, and Taylor Fritz. Of those five, Sinner and Zverev are entered in Beijing, while others chose to skip due to exhaustion after the US Open, or injuries.
Jannik Sinner’s path
Sinner begins with Marin Cilic, a former major champion standing at 6’6” tall who still hits a heavy, flat ball. It’s not a gentle opener, but Sinner’s return should blunt Cilic’s first strike plan. If he settles early on this quick hard court, Sinner can lean on his pattern of cross court backhands to set up forehand finishes. In his quadrant, Khachanov (5) lurks as the big test. Khachanov’s serve plus forehand combination can pin Sinner back if he’s landing a high first serve percentage. If Kachanov manages to pull through his winning combo, Sinner might be in a pickle. We can expect Sinner to counter by taking returns on the rise and mixing line changes from the backhand.
From there, a possible quarterfinal could involve the Rublev/Mensik/Cerundolo/Bublik cluster. Rublev is familiar and dangerous; he will pound that cross court forehand and look to bully neutral rallies. Bublik is a very unpredictable player on a good day, with surprise drop shots and purposefully odd pacing. Mensik brings in pace and fearless baseline hitting. If Sinner gets through, a semifinal might set up against de Minaur (3), whose speed and early take timing can draw errors if Sinner starts shooting short. Sinner, who is still a favorite in the China Open sportsbook, is still among the best in the sport and Beijing’s conditions suit his clean strikes.
Alexander Zverev’s path
Zverev opens against Lorenzo Sonego, which is not a free pass. Sonego serves well and loves a fast court. If Zverev’s second serve gets shaky, Sonego will step in and attack. Assuming Zverev stabilizes, a second round could bring Griekspoor or Moutet. The first one is a serve plus forehand power, the other a lefty disruptor that thrives on hard court. The bottom half is loaded with land mines: Medvedev (8) and Musetti (4) are both there, and Norrie is an early test for Medvedev. If Zverev reaches the weekend, expect a big serve shootout in a semifinal, with shorter points and an amazing first strike accuracy.
The Other Seeds to Watch
Alex de Minaur has an easy opener against a wild card and then may see Etcheverry or a qualifier, which is why he has great odds in the first few rounds at Stake.com. The real question is whether de Minaur can turn defense into instant offense often enough against the bigger hitters he’ll face later, such as Khachanov or Sinner.
Musetti drew Mpetshi Perricard, which is tricky because the Frenchman’s serve can eliminate pressure and force tie breaks. If Musetti manages service games with variety, mixing kick, slice, and some serve and volley, he can keep the match in his comfort zone.
Khachanov has the power to play through the court in Beijing. Rublev (6) will do what Rublev does: step in on the forehand and keep pounding. He can be a reasonable threat to any seed if his timing is right.
Mensik (7) is the most intriguing one: he’s young, hits through the court, and isn’t intimidated by more experienced players across the net. Medvedev (8) is the wild card here, even as an eighth seed. His return position and flat pace make him tough in any conditions.
Predictions: Who Wins the Title?
There’s only one answer to this. Jannik Sinner is the favorite. His form this season, his record on hard courts, and a draw that doesn’t put him against a nightmare matchup until late, all point to him. Media coverage even called it a “dream draw,” and the bracket backs that up. Sinner is the ultimate pick to win Beijing. Who is the best bet to stop him? The two names are Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev. Zverev’s serve on quick courts goes far to the baseline, and his backhand down the line can hurt Sinner if he gets time. Medvedev, meanwhile, can drag Sinner into awkward, flat exchanges and take away angles with boring but effective central hitting. If either man reaches top gear, they can turn the final into a coin flip.
Possible Upsets in Round of 32
Upsets happen in Beijing because the surface rewards first strike tennis and brave return positions. A few early red flag matches:
- Mpetshi Perricard vs Musetti (4). Musetti is the seed, but Perricard’s serve and forehand can steal sets quickly. If he pushes the match into tie breaks, the margins shrink, due to his strong serves which are the most powerful weapon in the final stages of the set. Given Musetti’s recent emotional swings and weakened mental state, the Frenchman’s power could make this closer than the seeding says.
- Kecmanovic vs Mensik (7). Mensik is a rising seed, but Kecmanovic is seasoned against pace and will test Menisk’s rally tolerance. If Mensik pushes too hard, Kecmanovic can flip neutral points with great timing.
- Norrie vs Medvedev (8). It seems like the eight seed should have no problems at this stage, but Norrie’s lefty patterns, especially the system of the backhand to open the court for inside out forehands, have bothered flat hitters before. If Medvedev starts slowly or sits too far back on return, Norrie can get ahead quickly.
- Sonego vs Zverev (2). Zverev should definitely advance, but Sonego’s serve and forehand can create a tie break heavy match. If Zverev’s second serve is not top notch, this can get messy fast.
Rising Stars to Follow
Jakub Mensik. He’s seeded here, which tells you how fast he’s climbed. He hits a heavy ball, takes early cuts off both wings, and goes for big points. He could be a week in, week out factor very soon. Juncheng “Jerry” Shang. The Beijing wild card has the crowd on his side and the speed to upset bigger hitters. If he gets a lead, he’s very hard to reel back in because he takes time away with early contact and quick direction changes.
Learner Tien. Still raw in some patterns but fearless on pace. If he goes for early returns and keeps points on his racquet, he can surprise a seed. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Massive, strong serve, and shorter points, is exactly the kind of player who can make noise in a quick first week at a 500. A first round win would shift the whole section.
Style That Matters in Beijing
The China Open typically rewards players who commit early to their patterns and keep pounding the same, powerful strikes. On these courts, serve plus the first forehand is a big deal. That’s why names like Khachanov, Rublev, Zverev, and Bublik can seem larger than life here.
A few simple rules of thumb that players seem to follow are to move well and take the ball early in order to break a rhythm. That is Sinner and de Minaur in a nutshell. If you serve big and return deep down the middle, you can shorten points and make even great defenders scramble for their footing. That is Zverev, Khachanov, and Medvedev. Whoever has tricks up their sleeve can make a seed uncomfortable in a heartbeat. That’s Bublik and Moutet.
Forecasting the Quarterfinal Picture
With the Round of 32 still to be played, here’s a sensible quarterfinal forecast based on the draw and form:
- Sinner vs Khachanov Power vs precision. Sinner’s return should decide it.
- Rublev vs Mensik (or Cerundolo). The winner likely comes down to who holds backhand to backhand longer.
- De Minaur vs Bublik (chaos option) or Etcheverry (grind option). Pace vs patience.
- Zverev vs Medvedev. If this happens, expect razor thin margins and a lot of rallies.
The Big Picture: Who Lifts the Trophy, And Why?
For most fans and experts, the best pick is still Jannik Sinner. The case is simple. He has an easy path early in the tournament, the court rewards his timing and footwork, and his confidence in closing sets has been steadily higher than most of his rivals this season. If he reaches the championship Sunday, he’ll probably face either Zverev or Medvedev. Against Zverev, Sinner’s return position on second serve and his backhand line are the keys. Against Medvedev, Sinner needs baseline shots, patience, and just enough net approaches to break the rhythm of Medvedev’s central hitting. If those boxes are checked, he wins.
What Comes Next?
A few players battled through long three set matches to earn a spot in the main draw. The real action begins with the Round of 32 on September 25. That is when the top seeds finally step onto the court. The most interesting sections to watch would be the ones with Musetti, Mensik, Rublev, Bublik, and Medvedev. Each of these players has the tools to shake up the bracket. Musetti has touch and variety, but he faces heavy servers who can make matches short. Mensik is a teenager with fearless power, but lacks experience. Still, he could upset an older seed. We can expect Rublev to blast forehands all week, but he can lose focus if matches get tight. Bublik is an unpredictable player armed with a smashing serve.
Medvedev is the safe hand. His tight defense makes him tough to crack, but tricky lefties or early pressure could catch him off guard. Predictions? Sinner is still the favorite for the title. Best bets for players who will survive the first few rounds are Zverev and Medvedev, with Rublev as a dark horse. A bold pick would be Mensik making the quarterfinals. The first round will tell us who is really ready.
