Prediction of Valerio Aboian vs Rocco Valente at M15 Lima 12-02-25

• How do the players fare in their second serve performance? Valerio Aboian has recently won 46.36% of points on his second serve, while Rocco Valente has a slightly better performance with 46.80%.
• What about return game effectiveness? Aboian wins 44.85% of points on his opponent's second serve compared to Valente's 50.60%. For first serve returns, Aboian has 29.47% while Valente boasts 32.00%.
• Under pressure, Aboian demonstrates resilience with a 57.46% breakpoint save rate, outperforming Valente who saves 45.45% of breakpoints.
• In terms of match performance over the past year, Aboian holds a 61.70% win rate, whereas Valente has won 51.28% of his matches.
• Both players have their best career win percentages on clay, with both achieving 62% wins, but Aboian struggles more on hard surfaces with a 0% win rate compared to Valente's 33% on indoor hard courts.
• At the tournament level, Aboian has a higher win rate of 69.23% in Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K matches, compared to Valente's 51.28% win rate.
• Considering the quality of opponents faced, Aboian's average opponent rank was 434.94 over the last year, while Valente has competed against stronger competition with an average rank of 184.82.
• In deciding set situations, both players have an equal success rate, winning 50% of these sets in recent matches.

Editorial Prediction (December 2, 2025, UTC):

When evaluating the head-to-head statistics between Valerio Aboian and Rocco Valente, subtle differences emerge that could influence the outcome of their upcoming match.

Aboian demonstrates a slight edge in saving breakpoints and overall match wins over the past year, indicating potential resilience during crucial moments. Meanwhile, Valente excels when returning serves, suggesting he might generate more opportunities to break Aboian’s service games.

Both players share a strong affinity for clay surfaces, potentially neutralizing any surface-based advantage. However, the level of competition faced favors Valente, as he has regularly contended with higher-ranked players, which may prepare him better for high-stakes matches.

With these considerations, Rocco Valente seems slightly favored to win the upcoming match based on his superior return stats and experiences against tougher competition.