Prediction of Toby Samuel vs Ilia Simakin at Manama 2 Challenger 11-30-25

• Recent second serve performance indicates Ilia Simakin has a slight edge, winning 46.13% of points compared to Toby Samuel's 43.17%.
• In return game statistics, Toby Samuel excels, especially in first serve returns, winning 28.99% compared to Ilia Simakin’s 23.94%.
• Under pressure, Ilia Simakin shows better resilience, saving 59.90% of breakpoints, whereas Toby Samuel saves 48.78%.
• Overall match performance over the last year favors Toby Samuel, with a 77.78% win rate compared to Ilia Simakin's 68.92%.
• Both players have an 80% win rate on their best career surface, Hard. What does this indicate for their upcoming match on a hard surface?
• Considering the level of competition, Toby Samuel’s performance at the Futures/Satellites/ITF $10K level might contrast Ilia Simakin's experience at higher-level events.
• Direct head-to-head analysis shows Toby Samuel has previously won against Ilia Simakin in their only meeting, including both sets played.
• Average match duration between these players has been about 1 hour 25 minutes, indicating closely contested games.
• Ilia Simakin has played against slightly higher-ranked players on average, suggesting possible exposure to tougher competitors.
• In deciding sets, Ilia Simakin performs better, with a 53% winning rate compared to Toby Samuel’s 46%, hinting at better endurance.

Editorial Prediction (November 29, 2025, UTC):

Toby Samuel and Ilia Simakin will face each other in an intriguing match, with both having strengths in different areas. Recent stats suggest that Ilia Simakin's second serve might give him a slight edge over Toby Samuel, who excels in returning first serves.

Toby Samuel’s overall win rate for the past year and his previous victory over Ilia Simakin provide a psychological and performance boost. However, Ilia Simakin’s ability to handle high-stress points more effectively could be crucial.

Both players perform exceptionally well on hard courts, yet the difference might come from Ilia Simakin's experience with higher-ranked competitors. Despite this, Toby Samuel’s superior overall winning percentage and direct head-to-head advantage slightly tilt the prediction in his favor.

Ultimately, based on these factors, Toby Samuel is more likely to emerge victorious in their upcoming match.