Reilly Opelka vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli Head-to-Head Stats, Results & Performance Comparison

• Recent second serve performance shows Opelka winning 49.36% of points, outperforming Carabelli's 44.41%. Does this indicate an edge for Opelka in the upcoming match? Indeed, it might.
• In recent return games, Carabelli excels in winning 48.26% of opponents' second serve points compared to Opelka's 40.87%.
• First serve return stats provide another advantage for Carabelli, with a 29.11% success rate against Opelka's 18.41%.
• Under pressure, Opelka saves 64.36% of breakpoints, offering a stark contrast to Carabelli's 54.2%.
• Looking at the past year's performance, Carabelli has a superior win rate of 65.12% over Opelka's 52.83%.
• Surface preference shows Opelka thriving on indoor hard courts (67% win rate), whereas Carabelli prefers clay (65% win rate).
• Tour-level distinctions reveal Opelka's 56.67% victory rate on the Main tour, in comparison to Carabelli's stronger form in the Challengers/ITF circuit with a 78.43% win rate.
• Opponent quality varies significantly, with Opelka facing higher-ranked opponents averaging a ranking of 94.13 compared to Carabelli's average opponent rank of 190.57.
• In deciding sets, Carabelli has a slight edge, winning 71% of such matches compared to Opelka’s 63%.
• Breaking down break point conversion rates, Carabelli leads with a 36.07% success rate, showing better efficiency than Opelka’s 22.73%.

Editorial Prediction (June 17, 2025, UTC):

Both players exhibit distinctive strengths and weaknesses. Opelka’s superior second serve performance suggests reliability in service games, which could be crucial in closely contested games.

However, Carabelli shines in return games and breakpoint conversions, signaling potential for breaking Opelka's serve and capitalizing on those chances.

Despite Opelka's experience against higher-ranked players, Carabelli’s recent consistent form and strong performance under pressure, especially seen in deciding sets and on clay surfaces, make a compelling case for him.

Given these insights, Carabelli seems poised to secure victory in this match, utilizing his return skills and mental toughness under pressure.