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Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com

By Wojtek Kolan

At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Nadal vs Federer analysis and find out who is favored!

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Up to 78% win accuracy on past h2h matches

Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer Important H2H Prediction Stats:

Head-to-head: Nadal 24 - 16 Federer

  • Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Nadal has won 53.08% of points on their second serve, while Federer has won 0%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
  • Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Nadal, in recent form, has won 53.23% of their opponent's second serve points, while Federer has won 0%. The same stats for first serve returns are 31.06% and 0% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
  • Under pressure analysis: Nadal has saved 58.21% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Federer has saved 0% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
  • Performance overview: Over the last year Nadal has won 58.33% of matches played (W/L 7/ 5), with Federer winning 0% (W/L 0/ 0) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
  • Best surface: Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 506/ 57), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38). Federer has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 87% (W/L 195/ 30), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 76% (W/L 229/ 74).
  • Player level: In the last year, Nadal has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 4/ 2), where as Federer has played most of their matches on the , winning 0% of matches (W/L / ). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
  • Direct H2H matches: They have played 40 times before with Nadal winning 24 times and Federer being victorious 16 times. They have played 124 sets in total, with Nadal winning 71 and Federer winning 53. The last match between Nadal and Federer was at the Wimbledon - London, 12-07-2019, Semifinals, Grass with Roger Federer getting the victory 7-6(3) 1-6 6-3 6-4.
  • Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 0:58:33.
  • Deciding set H2H prediction: Nadal and Federer have played a deciding set 13 times, with Nadal winning 7 times and Federer 6 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
  • Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 22 tiebreaks against each other with Nadal winning 11, and Federer 11.
  • Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Nadal has played against opponents with an average rank of 95.92 while Federer has played against players with an average rank of .
  • Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Nadal has won 67% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Federer has won 0% in all matches played on tour.
  • Break point conversion: In recent form, Nadal has converted 40.66% of breakpoint opportunities, and Federer has converted 0% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
  • If you are interested in models that predict tennis matches, this article is a good start (Warning: Stats geeks only)
bet365
Rafael Nadal

94

Total

36

Mast

2

Chall

22

Slam

33

Main

0

Minor

261

Rank

1

High

38

Age

L

Plays

24

Total

16

8

Hard

6

14

Clay

2

1

Indoor

5

1

Grass

3

Ret.

Rank

1

High

42

Age

R

Plays

Roger Federer

104

Total

28

Mast

1

Chall

20

Slam

49

Main

0

Minor

24

Total

16

8

Hard

6

14

Clay

2

1

Indoor

5

1

Grass

3

L W L W W W L W L L

Form

W W W W L W W W W L

82% (1119-241)

Career Total W/L

82% (1277-284)

58% (7-5)

YTD W/L

0% (0-0)

$96,533,810

Career Prize Money

$84,339,395

0

YTD Titles

0

Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.

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Sportsbooks & Bookies Promo Codes For Nadal VS Federer

Nadal VS Federer H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

stats Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
All H2H Matches 24 16
Sets Won 71 53
Games Won 634 589
Aces (Total) 90 303
DFs Total 60 56
Avg Match Time 0:58:33 0:58:33
1st Serve % 73% (2676/3653) 63% (2287/3626)
1st Serve Win% 67% (1788/2676) 70% (1605/2287)
2nd Serve Win% 55% (535/981) 49% (663/1344)
BPs Won% (Total) 41% (133/328) 36% (110/306)
Return Points W% 37% (1358/3624) 36% (1330/3650)
Best of 3 Sets W% 52% (12/23) 48% (11/23)
Best of 5 Sets W% 71% (12/17) 29% (5/17)
TBs Win% (Total) 50% (11/22) 50% (11/22)
Deciding Set Win% 54% (7/13) 46% (6/13)
1st set W, W 90% (20/18) 70% (20/14)
1st set W, L 10% (20/2) 30% (20/6)
1st set L, W 30% (20/6) 10% (20/2)

Nadal VS Federer H2h Matches played

Winning Player Losing Player Score
7-6(3) 1-6 6-3 6-4
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Rafael Nadal
68% ( 79 of 116)
1st Serve %
64% ( 81 of 127)
14
Aces
10
1
Double Faults
4
73% ( 58 of 79)
1st Serve Won
74% ( 60 of 81)
62% ( 23 of 37)
2nd Serve Won
48% ( 22 of 46)
20% ( 2 of 10)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
30% ( 35 of 116)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 45 of 127)
126
Total Points Won
117
6-3 6-4 6-2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Roger Federer
82% ( 72 of 88)
1st Serve %
59% ( 55 of 93)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
1
68% ( 49 of 72)
1st Serve Won
62% ( 34 of 55)
56% ( 9 of 16)
2nd Serve Won
39% ( 15 of 38)
38% ( 6 of 16)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 30 of 88)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 44 of 93)
102
Total Points Won
79
w/o
6-4 6-3
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Rafael Nadal
68% ( 30 of 44)
1st Serve %
74% ( 45 of 61)
10
Aces
4
0
Double Faults
0
83% ( 25 of 30)
1st Serve Won
62% ( 28 of 45)
79% ( 11 of 14)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 8 of 16)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
18% ( 8 of 44)
Rtn Points Won
41% ( 25 of 61)
61
Total Points Won
44
6-3 6-4
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Rafael Nadal
63% ( 39 of 62)
1st Serve %
63% ( 41 of 65)
5
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
1
87% ( 34 of 39)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 27 of 41)
48% ( 11 of 23)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 12 of 24)
22% ( 2 of 9)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 4)
27% ( 17 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
40% ( 26 of 65)
71
Total Points Won
56
6-2 6-3
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Rafael Nadal
56% ( 25 of 45)
1st Serve %
59% ( 32 of 54)
5
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
0
76% ( 19 of 25)
1st Serve Won
56% ( 18 of 32)
75% ( 15 of 20)
2nd Serve Won
59% ( 13 of 22)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 1)
24% ( 11 of 45)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 23 of 54)
57
Total Points Won
42
6-4 3-6 6-1 3-6 6-3
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Rafael Nadal
62% ( 85 of 138)
1st Serve %
73% ( 110 of 151)
20
Aces
4
3
Double Faults
3
76% ( 65 of 85)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 69 of 110)
49% ( 26 of 53)
2nd Serve Won
56% ( 23 of 41)
30% ( 6 of 20)
Break Points Won
24% ( 4 of 17)
34% ( 47 of 138)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 59 of 151)
150
Total Points Won
139
6-3 5-7 6-3
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Rafael Nadal
68% ( 61 of 90)
1st Serve %
68% ( 61 of 90)
12
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
3
75% ( 46 of 61)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 40 of 61)
59% ( 17 of 29)
2nd Serve Won
62% ( 18 of 29)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 27 of 90)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 32 of 90)
95
Total Points Won
85
7-6(4) 6-3 6-3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Roger Federer
65% ( 56 of 86)
1st Serve %
66% ( 69 of 105)
3
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
1
73% ( 41 of 56)
1st Serve Won
65% ( 45 of 69)
73% ( 22 of 30)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 18 of 36)
29% ( 4 of 14)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
27% ( 23 of 86)
Rtn Points Won
40% ( 42 of 105)
105
Total Points Won
86
7-5 6-3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Roger Federer
77% ( 43 of 56)
1st Serve %
66% ( 39 of 59)
2
Aces
6
0
Double Faults
1
74% ( 32 of 43)
1st Serve Won
69% ( 27 of 39)
69% ( 9 of 13)
2nd Serve Won
40% ( 8 of 20)
100% ( 4 of 4)
Break Points Won
25% ( 1 of 4)
27% ( 15 of 56)
Rtn Points Won
41% ( 24 of 59)
65
Total Points Won
50
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Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

stats Rafael Nadal Roger Federer
YTD W/L 58% (7/5) 0% (0/0)
Sets Win/Loss 54% (15/13) 0% (0/0)
Games Win/Loss 54% (143/123) 0% (0/0)
Hard Win/Loss 67% (2/1) 0% (0/0)
Clay Win/Loss 56% (5/4) 0% (0/0)
Indoor Hard W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Grass Win/Loss 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Aces pg 0.19 0
Aces Total 24 0
DFs per game 0.17 0
DFs Total 22 0
Avg Match Time 2:6:53 1st Match
Avg Opp Rank 95.92 0
1st Serve % 69% (568/828) 0% (0/0)
1st Serve W% 68% (387/568) 0% (0/0)
2nd Serve W% 53% (138/260) 0% (0/0)
BPs Won% Total 41% (37/91) 0% (0/0)
Return Pts W% 39% (329/838) 0% (0/0)
Slam W/L 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0)
Masters W/L 67% (4/2) 0% (0/0)
Cups W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Main Tour W/L 60% (3/2) 0% (0/0)
Tour Finals W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Challenger W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Futures W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Best of 3 Sets W% 64% (7/11) 0% (0/0)
Best of 5 Sets W% 0% (0/1) 0% (0/0)
TBs Win% (Total) 25% (1/4) 0% (0/0)
Deciding Set W% 67% (2/3) 0% (0/0)
1st set W, W 86% (7/6) 0% (0/0)
1st set W, L 14% (7/1) 0% (0/0)
1st set L, W 20% (5/1) 0% (0/0)

Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT RESULT Score H2H
R1
cross
Alexander Zverev
Player
Rafael Nadal
77% ( 72 of 93)
1st Serve %
70% ( 78 of 111)
8
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
3
72% ( 52 of 72)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 45 of 78)
48% ( 10 of 21)
2nd Serve Won
48% ( 16 of 33)
33% ( 6 of 18)
Break Points Won
18% ( 2 of 11)
33% ( 31 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 50 of 111)
112
Total Points Won
92
L
6-3 7-6(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Hubert Hurkacz
Player
Rafael Nadal
54% ( 30 of 56)
1st Serve %
72% ( 38 of 53)
9
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
83% ( 25 of 30)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 20 of 38)
62% ( 16 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
53% ( 8 of 15)
57% ( 4 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 7)
27% ( 15 of 56)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 25 of 53)
66
Total Points Won
43
L
6-1 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Zizou Bergs
62% ( 58 of 93)
1st Serve %
56% ( 44 of 78)
3
Aces
7
4
Double Faults
4
67% ( 39 of 58)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
63% ( 22 of 35)
2nd Serve Won
62% ( 21 of 34)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
22% ( 2 of 9)
34% ( 32 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 27 of 78)
88
Total Points Won
83
W
4-6 6-3 6-4 H2H
R4
cross
Jiri Lehecka
Player
Rafael Nadal
71% ( 46 of 65)
1st Serve %
61% ( 44 of 72)
7
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
89% ( 41 of 46)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
37% ( 7 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
40% ( 2 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 1)
26% ( 17 of 65)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 28 of 72)
76
Total Points Won
61
L
7-5 6-4 H2H
R3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Pedro Cachin
78% ( 59 of 76)
1st Serve %
61% ( 74 of 122)
0
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
3
64% ( 38 of 59)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 39 of 74)
35% ( 6 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
38% ( 18 of 48)
50% ( 9 of 18)
Break Points Won
67% ( 4 of 6)
42% ( 32 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 65 of 122)
109
Total Points Won
89
W
6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
W
7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Darwin Blanch
62% ( 24 of 39)
1st Serve %
69% ( 27 of 39)
2
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
2
79% ( 19 of 24)
1st Serve Won
52% ( 14 of 27)
73% ( 11 of 15)
2nd Serve Won
17% ( 2 of 12)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
23% ( 9 of 39)
Rtn Points Won
59% ( 23 of 39)
53
Total Points Won
25
W
6-1 6-0 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
L
7-5 6-1 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65% ( 32 of 49)
1st Serve %
49% ( 27 of 55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78% ( 25 of 32)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 19 of 27)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 10 of 28)
40% ( 4 of 10)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
31% ( 15 of 49)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 26 of 55)
60
Total Points Won
44
W
6-2 6-3 H2H
QF
cross
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61% ( 67 of 109)
1st Serve %
73% ( 79 of 108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76% ( 51 of 67)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 58 of 79)
48% ( 20 of 42)
2nd Serve Won
45% ( 13 of 29)
67% ( 2 of 3)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
35% ( 38 of 109)
Rtn Points Won
34% ( 37 of 108)
108
Total Points Won
109
L
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 H2H

Roger Federer Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT RESULT Score H2H
QF
cross
Hubert Hurkacz
Player
Roger Federer
59% ( 52 of 88)
1st Serve %
65% ( 60 of 93)
10
Aces
5
3
Double Faults
3
79% ( 41 of 52)
1st Serve Won
67% ( 40 of 60)
56% ( 20 of 36)
2nd Serve Won
33% ( 11 of 33)
33% ( 5 of 15)
Break Points Won
25% ( 1 of 4)
31% ( 27 of 88)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 42 of 93)
103
Total Points Won
78
L
6-3 7-6(4) 6-0 H2H
R4
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Lorenzo Sonego
60% ( 47 of 78)
1st Serve %
62% ( 67 of 108)
4
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
2
79% ( 37 of 47)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 44 of 67)
65% ( 20 of 31)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 18 of 41)
33% ( 5 of 15)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
27% ( 21 of 78)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 46 of 108)
103
Total Points Won
83
W
7-5 6-4 6-2 H2H
R3
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Cameron Norrie
67% ( 76 of 114)
1st Serve %
66% ( 87 of 132)
7
Aces
12
0
Double Faults
7
74% ( 56 of 76)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 59 of 87)
66% ( 25 of 38)
2nd Serve Won
49% ( 22 of 45)
36% ( 4 of 11)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
29% ( 33 of 114)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 51 of 132)
132
Total Points Won
114
W
6-4 6-4 5-7 6-4 H2H
R2
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Richard Gasquet
65% ( 62 of 95)
1st Serve %
57% ( 55 of 96)
10
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
2
84% ( 52 of 62)
1st Serve Won
65% ( 36 of 55)
58% ( 19 of 33)
2nd Serve Won
51% ( 21 of 41)
50% ( 3 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 5)
25% ( 24 of 95)
Rtn Points Won
41% ( 39 of 96)
110
Total Points Won
81
W
7-6(1) 6-1 6-4 H2H
R1
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Adrian Mannarino
61% ( 68 of 112)
1st Serve %
64% ( 83 of 130)
16
Aces
5
3
Double Faults
6
74% ( 50 of 68)
1st Serve Won
76% ( 63 of 83)
61% ( 27 of 44)
2nd Serve Won
43% ( 20 of 47)
31% ( 4 of 13)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
31% ( 35 of 112)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 47 of 130)
124
Total Points Won
118
W
6-4 6-7(3) 3-6 6-2 0-0 ret. H2H
R2
cross
Felix Auger Aliassime
Player
Roger Federer
70% ( 48 of 69)
1st Serve %
67% ( 61 of 91)
13
Aces
5
2
Double Faults
1
88% ( 42 of 48)
1st Serve Won
62% ( 38 of 61)
62% ( 13 of 21)
2nd Serve Won
53% ( 16 of 30)
20% ( 3 of 15)
Break Points Won
100% ( 1 of 1)
20% ( 14 of 69)
Rtn Points Won
41% ( 37 of 91)
92
Total Points Won
68
L
4-6 6-3 6-2 H2H
R1
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Ilya Ivashka
75% ( 57 of 76)
1st Serve %
61% ( 43 of 70)
4
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
0
77% ( 44 of 57)
1st Serve Won
72% ( 31 of 43)
53% ( 10 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
74% ( 20 of 27)
25% ( 1 of 4)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 2)
29% ( 22 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
27% ( 19 of 70)
73
Total Points Won
73
W
7-6(4) 7-5 H2H
R4
L
w/o H2H
R3
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Dominik Koepfer
64% ( 101 of 158)
1st Serve %
59% ( 95 of 161)
6
Aces
11
1
Double Faults
4
68% ( 69 of 101)
1st Serve Won
65% ( 62 of 95)
58% ( 33 of 57)
2nd Serve Won
62% ( 41 of 66)
36% ( 5 of 14)
Break Points Won
67% ( 4 of 6)
35% ( 56 of 158)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 58 of 161)
160
Total Points Won
159
W
7-6(5) 6-7(3) 7-6(4) 7-5 H2H
R2
cross
Roger Federer
Player
Marin Cilic
68% ( 80 of 117)
1st Serve %
64% ( 77 of 120)
16
Aces
12
1
Double Faults
6
75% ( 60 of 80)
1st Serve Won
75% ( 58 of 77)
57% ( 21 of 37)
2nd Serve Won
40% ( 17 of 43)
31% ( 5 of 16)
Break Points Won
38% ( 3 of 8)
31% ( 36 of 117)
Rtn Points Won
38% ( 45 of 120)
126
Total Points Won
111
W
6-2 2-6 7-6(4) 6-2 H2H

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