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Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com

By Wojtek Kolan

At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Nadal vs Thiem analysis and find out who is favored!

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Up to 78% win accuracy on past h2h matches

Rafael Nadal vs Dominic Thiem Important H2H Prediction Stats:

Head-to-head: Nadal 10 - 6 Thiem

  • Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Nadal has won 53.74% of points on his second serve, while Thiem has won 47.93%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
  • Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Nadal, in recent form, has won 53.29% of his opponent's second serve points, while Thiem has won 45.75%. The same stats for first serve returns are 31.58% and 30.03% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
  • Under pressure analysis: Nadal has saved 55.1% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Thiem has saved 57.14% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
  • Performance overview: Over the last year Nadal has won 63.64% of matches played (W/L 7/ 4), with Thiem winning 48.94% (W/L 23/ 24) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
  • Best surface: Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 506/ 56), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38). Thiem has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 70% (W/L 259/ 111), and worse career win % on Grass, winning 45% (W/L 14/ 17).
  • Player level: In the last year, Nadal has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 4/ 2), where as Thiem has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 54.17% of matches (W/L 13/ 11). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
  • Direct H2H matches: They have played 16 times before with Nadal winning 10 times. They have played 43 sets in total, with Nadal winning 27 and Thiem winning 16. The last match between Nadal and Thiem was at the Brisbane International - Brisbane, 02-01-2024, First, Hard with Rafael Nadal getting the victory 7-5 6-1.
  • Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 2:24:24.
  • Deciding set H2H prediction: Nadal and Thiem have played a deciding set 2 times, with Nadal winning 1 times and Thiem 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
  • Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 9 tiebreaks against each other with Nadal winning 2, and Thiem 7.
  • Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Nadal has played against opponents with an average rank of 104.36 while Thiem has played against players with an average rank of 174.85.
  • Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Nadal has won 67% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Thiem has won 55% in all matches played on tour.
  • Break point conversion: In recent form, Nadal has converted 43.75% of breakpoint opportunities, and Thiem has converted 32.29% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
bet365
Rafael Nadal

94

Total

36

Mast

2

Chall

22

Slam

33

Main

0

Minor

276

Rank

1

High

37

Age

L

Plays

10

Total

6

2

Hard

1

8

Clay

4

0

Indoor

1

0

Grass

0

131

Rank

3

High

30

Age

R

Plays

Dominic Thiem

24

Total

1

Mast

2

Chall

1

Slam

15

Main

5

Minor

10

Total

6

2

Hard

1

8

Clay

4

0

Indoor

1

0

Grass

0

W L W L W W W L W L

Form

W L W L L L W L W L

82% (1119-240)

Career Total W/L

64% (483-273)

64% (7-4)

YTD W/L

44% (7-9)

$96,533,810

Career Prize Money

$20,491,215

0

YTD Titles

0

Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.

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Nadal VS Thiem H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

stats Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem
All H2H Matches 10 6
Sets Won 27 16
Games Won 241 187
Aces (Total) 39 93
DFs (Total) 29 42
Avg Match Time 2:24:24 2:24:24
1st Serve % 69% (941/1373) 61% (827/1357)
1st Serve Win% 70% (657/941) 67% (555/827)
2nd Serve Win% 57% (246/432) 49% (260/530)
BPs Won% (Total) 41% (58/142) 30% (33/111)
Return Points W% 40% (542/1357) 34% (470/1373)
Best of 3 Sets W% 50% (5/10) 50% (5/10)
Best of 5 Sets W% 83% (5/6) 17% (1/6)
TBs Win% (Total) 22% (2/9) 78% (7/9)
Deciding Set Win% 50% (1/2) 50% (1/2)
1st set W, W 100% (9/9) 86% (7/6)
1st set W, L 0% (9/0) 14% (7/1)
1st set L, W 14% (7/1) 0% (9/0)

Nadal VS Thiem H2h Matches played

Winning Player Losing Player Score
7-5 6-1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
67% ( 31 of 46)
1st Serve %
63% ( 34 of 54)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
90% ( 28 of 31)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 23 of 34)
80% ( 12 of 15)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 10 of 20)
50% ( 3 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
13% ( 6 of 46)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 21 of 54)
61
Total Points Won
39
7-6(7) 7-6(4)
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
59% ( 51 of 87)
1st Serve %
60% ( 48 of 80)
6
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
1
76% ( 39 of 51)
1st Serve Won
69% ( 33 of 48)
53% ( 19 of 36)
2nd Serve Won
59% ( 19 of 32)
20% ( 1 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
33% ( 29 of 87)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 28 of 80)
86
Total Points Won
81
7-6(3) 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(6)
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
59% ( 83 of 140)
1st Serve %
70% ( 105 of 151)
14
Aces
11
4
Double Faults
3
78% ( 65 of 83)
1st Serve Won
69% ( 72 of 105)
49% ( 28 of 57)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 24 of 46)
38% ( 3 of 8)
Break Points Won
44% ( 4 of 9)
34% ( 47 of 140)
Rtn Points Won
36% ( 55 of 151)
148
Total Points Won
143
6-3 5-7 6-1 6-1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
74% ( 78 of 106)
1st Serve %
70% ( 64 of 92)
3
Aces
7
0
Double Faults
1
73% ( 57 of 78)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 37 of 64)
64% ( 18 of 28)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
54% ( 7 of 13)
Break Points Won
33% ( 2 of 6)
29% ( 31 of 106)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 41 of 92)
116
Total Points Won
82
6-4 6-4
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
72% ( 41 of 57)
1st Serve %
74% ( 59 of 80)
5
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
5
76% ( 31 of 41)
1st Serve Won
64% ( 38 of 59)
69% ( 11 of 16)
2nd Serve Won
43% ( 9 of 21)
17% ( 2 of 12)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 3)
26% ( 15 of 57)
Rtn Points Won
41% ( 33 of 80)
75
Total Points Won
62
0-6 6-4 7-5 6-7(4) 7-6(5)
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
66% ( 110 of 167)
1st Serve %
58% ( 98 of 170)
3
Aces
18
4
Double Faults
4
67% ( 74 of 110)
1st Serve Won
71% ( 70 of 98)
56% ( 32 of 57)
2nd Serve Won
56% ( 40 of 72)
29% ( 5 of 17)
Break Points Won
46% ( 6 of 13)
37% ( 61 of 167)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 60 of 170)
166
Total Points Won
171
6-4 6-3 6-2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
68% ( 56 of 82)
1st Serve %
58% ( 59 of 102)
0
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
5
82% ( 46 of 56)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 40 of 59)
46% ( 12 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 15 of 43)
29% ( 5 of 17)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
29% ( 24 of 82)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 47 of 102)
105
Total Points Won
79
7-5 6-3
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Rafael Nadal
65% ( 39 of 60)
1st Serve %
58% ( 45 of 77)
2
Aces
3
5
Double Faults
2
74% ( 29 of 39)
1st Serve Won
64% ( 29 of 45)
43% ( 9 of 21)
2nd Serve Won
34% ( 11 of 32)
42% ( 5 of 12)
Break Points Won
40% ( 2 of 5)
37% ( 22 of 60)
Rtn Points Won
48% ( 37 of 77)
75
Total Points Won
62
6-0 6-2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
71% ( 25 of 35)
1st Serve %
41% ( 21 of 51)
0
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
5
84% ( 21 of 25)
1st Serve Won
52% ( 11 of 21)
80% ( 8 of 10)
2nd Serve Won
37% ( 11 of 30)
42% ( 5 of 12)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
17% ( 6 of 35)
Rtn Points Won
57% ( 29 of 51)
58
Total Points Won
28
6-3 6-4 6-0
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
66% ( 49 of 74)
1st Serve %
53% ( 43 of 81)
2
Aces
3
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 35 of 49)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 27 of 43)
76% ( 19 of 25)
2nd Serve Won
37% ( 14 of 38)
60% ( 6 of 10)
Break Points Won
13% ( 1 of 8)
27% ( 20 of 74)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 40 of 81)
94
Total Points Won
61
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Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

stats Rafael Nadal Dominic Thiem
YTD W/L 64% (7/4) 44% (7/9)
Sets Win/Loss 60% (15/10) 40% (16/24)
Games Win/Loss 56% (131/104) 46% (178/212)
Hard Win/Loss 67% (2/1) 50% (2/2)
Clay Win/Loss 63% (5/3) 36% (4/7)
Indoor Hard W/L 0% (0/0) 100% (1/0)
Grass Win/Loss 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Aces pg 0.19 0.3
Aces Total 22 57
DFs per game 0.17 0.25
DFs Total 19 48
Avg Match Time 2:1:36 1:54:15
Avg Opp Rank 104.36 207.69
1st Serve % 68% (490/717) 61% (684/1118)
1st Serve W% 70% (342/490) 66% (452/684)
2nd Serve W% 54% (122/227) 48% (208/434)
BPs Won% Total 44% (35/80) 32% (31/96)
Return Pts W% 40% (298/745) 36% (404/1136)
Slam W/L 0% (0/0) 33% (1/2)
Masters W/L 67% (4/2) 33% (1/2)
Cups W/L 0% (0/0) 100% (1/0)
Main Tour W/L 60% (3/2) 50% (3/3)
Tour Finals W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Challenger W/L 0% (0/0) 33% (1/2)
Futures W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Best of 3 Sets W% 64% (7/11) 47% (7/15)
Best of 5 Sets W% 0% (0/0) 0% (0/1)
TBs Win% (Total) 33% (1/3) 67% (4/6)
Deciding Set W% 67% (2/3) 83% (5/6)
1st set W, W 86% (7/6) 100% (4/4)
1st set W, L 14% (7/1) 0% (4/0)
1st set L, W 25% (4/1) 25% (12/3)

Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played

opponent Result Score H2H
R2
cross
Hubert Hurkacz
Player
Rafael Nadal
54% ( 30 of 56)
1st Serve %
72% ( 38 of 53)
9
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
83% ( 25 of 30)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 20 of 38)
62% ( 16 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
53% ( 8 of 15)
57% ( 4 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 7)
27% ( 15 of 56)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 25 of 53)
66
Total Points Won
43
L
6-1 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Zizou Bergs
62% ( 58 of 93)
1st Serve %
56% ( 44 of 78)
3
Aces
7
4
Double Faults
4
67% ( 39 of 58)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
63% ( 22 of 35)
2nd Serve Won
62% ( 21 of 34)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
22% ( 2 of 9)
34% ( 32 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 27 of 78)
88
Total Points Won
83
W
4-6 6-3 6-4 H2H
R4
cross
Jiri Lehecka
Player
Rafael Nadal
71% ( 46 of 65)
1st Serve %
61% ( 44 of 72)
7
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
89% ( 41 of 46)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
37% ( 7 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
40% ( 2 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 1)
26% ( 17 of 65)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 28 of 72)
76
Total Points Won
61
L
7-5 6-4 H2H
R3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Pedro Cachin
78% ( 59 of 76)
1st Serve %
61% ( 74 of 122)
0
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
3
64% ( 38 of 59)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 39 of 74)
35% ( 6 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
38% ( 18 of 48)
50% ( 9 of 18)
Break Points Won
67% ( 4 of 6)
42% ( 32 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 65 of 122)
109
Total Points Won
89
W
6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
W
7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Darwin Blanch
62% ( 24 of 39)
1st Serve %
69% ( 27 of 39)
2
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
2
79% ( 19 of 24)
1st Serve Won
52% ( 14 of 27)
73% ( 11 of 15)
2nd Serve Won
17% ( 2 of 12)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
23% ( 9 of 39)
Rtn Points Won
59% ( 23 of 39)
53
Total Points Won
25
W
6-1 6-0 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
L
7-5 6-1 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65% ( 32 of 49)
1st Serve %
49% ( 27 of 55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78% ( 25 of 32)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 19 of 27)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 10 of 28)
40% ( 4 of 10)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
31% ( 15 of 49)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 26 of 55)
60
Total Points Won
44
W
6-2 6-3 H2H
QF
cross
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61% ( 67 of 109)
1st Serve %
73% ( 79 of 108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76% ( 51 of 67)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 58 of 79)
48% ( 20 of 42)
2nd Serve Won
45% ( 13 of 29)
67% ( 2 of 3)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
35% ( 38 of 109)
Rtn Points Won
34% ( 37 of 108)
108
Total Points Won
109
L
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jason Murray Kubler
65% ( 30 of 46)
1st Serve %
76% ( 35 of 46)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
3
80% ( 24 of 30)
1st Serve Won
57% ( 20 of 35)
63% ( 10 of 16)
2nd Serve Won
18% ( 2 of 11)
67% ( 4 of 6)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 4)
26% ( 12 of 46)
Rtn Points Won
52% ( 24 of 46)
58
Total Points Won
34
W
6-1 6-2 H2H

Dominic Thiem Recent Matches Played

opponent Result Score H2H
Q2
cross
Otto Virtanen
Player
Dominic Thiem
68% ( 41 of 60)
1st Serve %
52% ( 39 of 75)
7
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
5
76% ( 31 of 41)
1st Serve Won
51% ( 20 of 39)
47% ( 9 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
47% ( 17 of 36)
45% ( 5 of 11)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
33% ( 20 of 60)
Rtn Points Won
51% ( 38 of 75)
78
Total Points Won
57
L
6-2 7-5 H2H
Q1
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Franco Agamenone
55% ( 46 of 84)
1st Serve %
69% ( 68 of 99)
4
Aces
1
4
Double Faults
5
70% ( 32 of 46)
1st Serve Won
59% ( 40 of 68)
53% ( 20 of 38)
2nd Serve Won
45% ( 14 of 31)
36% ( 5 of 14)
Break Points Won
33% ( 3 of 9)
38% ( 32 of 84)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 45 of 99)
97
Total Points Won
86
W
3-6 6-3 6-2 H2H
QF
cross
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Player
Dominic Thiem
70% ( 32 of 46)
1st Serve %
64% ( 36 of 56)
4
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
1
81% ( 26 of 32)
1st Serve Won
50% ( 18 of 36)
57% ( 8 of 14)
2nd Serve Won
55% ( 11 of 20)
50% ( 4 of 8)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 4)
26% ( 12 of 46)
Rtn Points Won
48% ( 27 of 56)
61
Total Points Won
41
L
6-1 6-3 H2H
Q1
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Felipe Meligeni Alves
61% ( 54 of 88)
1st Serve %
73% ( 72 of 99)
6
Aces
1
4
Double Faults
1
69% ( 37 of 54)
1st Serve Won
61% ( 44 of 72)
56% ( 19 of 34)
2nd Serve Won
48% ( 13 of 27)
36% ( 5 of 14)
Break Points Won
27% ( 3 of 11)
36% ( 32 of 88)
Rtn Points Won
42% ( 42 of 99)
98
Total Points Won
89
W
6-2 3-6 7-5 H2H
R1
cross
Alejandro Moro Canas
Player
Dominic Thiem
75% ( 58 of 77)
1st Serve %
51% ( 29 of 57)
3
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
66% ( 38 of 58)
1st Serve Won
55% ( 16 of 29)
37% ( 7 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
83% ( 5 of 6)
Break Points Won
38% ( 3 of 8)
42% ( 32 of 77)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 27 of 57)
72
Total Points Won
62
L
6-4 6-4 H2H
Q1
cross
Roberto Bautista Agut
Player
Dominic Thiem
78% ( 35 of 45)
1st Serve %
64% ( 27 of 42)
2
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
3
69% ( 24 of 35)
1st Serve Won
37% ( 10 of 27)
70% ( 7 of 10)
2nd Serve Won
40% ( 6 of 15)
83% ( 5 of 6)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
31% ( 14 of 45)
Rtn Points Won
62% ( 26 of 42)
57
Total Points Won
30
L
6-1 6-2 H2H
R2
cross
Richard Gasquet
Player
Dominic Thiem
52% ( 32 of 61)
1st Serve %
57% ( 52 of 91)
3
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
4
72% ( 23 of 32)
1st Serve Won
65% ( 34 of 52)
72% ( 21 of 29)
2nd Serve Won
51% ( 20 of 39)
25% ( 2 of 8)
Break Points Won
100% ( 1 of 1)
28% ( 17 of 61)
Rtn Points Won
41% ( 37 of 91)
81
Total Points Won
71
L
6-4 7-6(6) H2H
R1
cross
Dominic Thiem
Player
Maximilian Marterer
61% ( 52 of 85)
1st Serve %
62% ( 59 of 95)
6
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
7
73% ( 38 of 52)
1st Serve Won
59% ( 35 of 59)
48% ( 16 of 33)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 16 of 36)
50% ( 6 of 12)
Break Points Won
33% ( 2 of 6)
36% ( 31 of 85)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 44 of 95)
98
Total Points Won
82
W
6-1 6-7(3) 6-4 H2H
R2
cross
Lukas Neumayer
Player
Dominic Thiem
62% ( 45 of 73)
1st Serve %
56% ( 27 of 48)
1
Aces
0
2
Double Faults
2
67% ( 30 of 45)
1st Serve Won
59% ( 16 of 27)
57% ( 16 of 28)
2nd Serve Won
38% ( 8 of 21)
57% ( 4 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 8)
37% ( 27 of 73)
Rtn Points Won
50% ( 24 of 48)
70
Total Points Won
51
L
6-2 6-1 H2H
R1
W
6-2 7-6(4) H2H

Nadal Vs Thiem Prediction H2H Images To Share

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