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Rafael Nadal vs Alex De Minaur Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com

By Wojtek Kolan

At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Nadal vs Minaur analysis and find out who is favored!

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Rafael Nadal vs Alex De Minaur Important H2H Prediction Stats:

Head-to-head: Nadal 4 - 2 Minaur

  • Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Nadal has won 51.5% of points on their second serve, while Minaur has won 54.26%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
  • Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Nadal, in recent form, has won 52.32% of their opponent's second serve points, while Minaur has won 57.42%. The same stats for first serve returns are 31.12% and 36.25% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
  • Under pressure analysis: Nadal has saved 56.67% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Minaur has saved 58.94% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
  • Performance overview: Over the last year Nadal has won 58.33% of matches played (W/L 7/ 5), with Minaur winning 71.43% (W/L 60/ 24) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
  • Best surface: Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 506/ 57), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38). Minaur has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 69% (W/L 51/ 23), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 56% (W/L 65/ 51).
  • Player level: In the last year, Nadal has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 4/ 2), where as Minaur has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 72.22% of matches (W/L 26/ 10). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
  • Direct H2H matches: They have played 6 times before with Nadal winning 4 times and Minaur being victorious 2 times. They have played 16 sets in total, with Nadal winning 11 and Minaur winning 5. The last match between Nadal and Minaur was at the Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid, 27-04-2024, Second, Clay with Rafael Nadal getting the victory 7-6(6) 6-3.
  • Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 2:12:22.
  • Deciding set H2H prediction: Nadal and Minaur have played a deciding set 2 times, with Nadal winning 1 times and Minaur 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
  • Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 1 tiebreaks against each other with Nadal winning 1, and Minaur 0.
  • Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Nadal has played against opponents with an average rank of 95.92 while Minaur has played against players with an average rank of 89.12.
  • Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Nadal has won 67% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Minaur has won 67% in all matches played on tour.
  • Break point conversion: In recent form, Nadal has converted 39.44% of breakpoint opportunities, and Minaur has converted 43.66% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
  • If you are interested in models that predict tennis matches, this article is a good start (Warning: Stats geeks only)
bet365
Rafael Nadal

94

Total

36

Mast

2

Chall

22

Slam

33

Main

0

Minor

261

Rank

1

High

38

Age

L

Plays

4

Total

2

2

Hard

1

1

Clay

1

0

Indoor

0

1

Grass

0

6

Rank

6

High

25

Age

R

Plays

Alex De Minaur

11

Total

0

Mast

1

Chall

0

Slam

9

Main

1

Minor

4

Total

2

2

Hard

1

1

Clay

1

0

Indoor

0

1

Grass

0

L W L W W W L W L L

Form

W L W W W W L W W W

82% (1119-241)

Career Total W/L

64% (346-197)

58% (7-5)

YTD W/L

75% (36-12)

$96,543,975

Career Prize Money

$9,480,840

0

YTD Titles

2

Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.

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Nadal VS Minaur H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

stats Rafael Nadal Alex De Minaur
All H2H Matches 4 2
Sets Won 11 5
Games Won 84 64
Aces (Total) 18 24
DFs Total 17 20
Avg Match Time 2:12:22 2:12:22
1st Serve % 68% (321/474) 61% (286/467)
1st Serve Win% 72% (230/321) 65% (186/286)
2nd Serve Win% 48% (74/153) 50% (91/181)
BPs Won% (Total) 46% (23/50) 42% (15/36)
Return Points W% 40% (188/467) 35% (164/474)
Best of 3 Sets W% 50% (2/4) 50% (2/4)
Best of 5 Sets W% 100% (2/2) 0% (0/2)
TBs Win% (Total) 100% (1/1) 0% (0/1)
Deciding Set Win% 50% (1/2) 50% (1/2)
1st set W, W 75% (4/3) 50% (2/1)
1st set W, L 25% (4/1) 50% (2/1)
1st set L, W 50% (2/1) 25% (4/1)

Nadal VS Minaur H2h Matches played

Winning Player Losing Player Score
7-6(6) 6-3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
7-5 6-1
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
3-6 6-1 7-5
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
62% ( 62 of 100)
1st Serve %
61% ( 56 of 92)
3
Aces
2
6
Double Faults
4
63% ( 39 of 62)
1st Serve Won
61% ( 34 of 56)
50% ( 19 of 38)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 16 of 36)
46% ( 6 of 13)
Break Points Won
33% ( 4 of 12)
42% ( 42 of 100)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 42 of 92)
100
Total Points Won
92
4-6 7-5 6-1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 61 of 84)
1st Serve %
73% ( 55 of 75)
5
Aces
6
3
Double Faults
1
79% ( 48 of 61)
1st Serve Won
67% ( 37 of 55)
43% ( 10 of 23)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 10 of 20)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
67% ( 2 of 3)
31% ( 26 of 84)
Rtn Points Won
37% ( 28 of 75)
86
Total Points Won
73
6-1 6-2 6-4
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
75% ( 65 of 87)
1st Serve %
57% ( 54 of 94)
6
Aces
3
6
Double Faults
2
82% ( 53 of 65)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 34 of 54)
36% ( 8 of 22)
2nd Serve Won
40% ( 16 of 40)
38% ( 5 of 13)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 4)
30% ( 26 of 87)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 44 of 94)
105
Total Points Won
76
6-1 6-2 6-4
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
58% ( 44 of 76)
1st Serve %
56% ( 43 of 77)
5
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
5
77% ( 34 of 44)
1st Serve Won
60% ( 26 of 43)
72% ( 23 of 32)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 17 of 34)
42% ( 5 of 12)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 3)
25% ( 19 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 34 of 77)
91
Total Points Won
62

Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

stats Rafael Nadal Alex De Minaur
YTD W/L 58% (7/5) 75% (36/12)
Sets Win/Loss 54% (15/13) 71% (87/36)
Games Win/Loss 54% (143/123) 58% (658/486)
Hard Win/Loss 67% (2/1) 75% (15/5)
Clay Win/Loss 56% (5/4) 67% (10/5)
Indoor Hard W/L 0% (0/0) 80% (4/1)
Grass Win/Loss 0% (0/0) 88% (7/1)
Aces pg 0.19 0.36
Aces Total 24 200
DFs per game 0.17 0.2
DFs Total 22 110
Avg Match Time 2:6:53 1:53:35
Avg Opp Rank 95.92 89.13
1st Serve % 69% (568/828) 55% (1835/3354)
1st Serve W% 68% (387/568) 73% (1336/1835)
2nd Serve W% 53% (138/260) 55% (836/1519)
BPs Won% Total 41% (37/91) 44% (190/432)
Return Pts W% 39% (329/838) 44% (1658/3803)
Slam W/L 0% (0/1) 83% (10/2)
Masters W/L 67% (4/2) 64% (9/5)
Cups W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Main Tour W/L 60% (3/2) 77% (17/5)
Tour Finals W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Challenger W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Futures W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Best of 3 Sets W% 64% (7/11) 71% (25/35)
Best of 5 Sets W% 0% (0/1) 85% (11/13)
TBs Win% (Total) 25% (1/4) 62% (8/13)
Deciding Set W% 67% (2/3) 50% (5/10)
1st set W, W 86% (7/6) 94% (31/29)
1st set W, L 14% (7/1) 6% (31/2)
1st set L, W 20% (5/1) 41% (17/7)

Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT RESULT Score H2H
R1
cross
Alexander Zverev
Player
Rafael Nadal
77% ( 72 of 93)
1st Serve %
70% ( 78 of 111)
8
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
3
72% ( 52 of 72)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 45 of 78)
48% ( 10 of 21)
2nd Serve Won
48% ( 16 of 33)
33% ( 6 of 18)
Break Points Won
18% ( 2 of 11)
33% ( 31 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 50 of 111)
112
Total Points Won
92
L
6-3 7-6(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Hubert Hurkacz
Player
Rafael Nadal
54% ( 30 of 56)
1st Serve %
72% ( 38 of 53)
9
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
83% ( 25 of 30)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 20 of 38)
62% ( 16 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
53% ( 8 of 15)
57% ( 4 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 7)
27% ( 15 of 56)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 25 of 53)
66
Total Points Won
43
L
6-1 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Zizou Bergs
62% ( 58 of 93)
1st Serve %
56% ( 44 of 78)
3
Aces
7
4
Double Faults
4
67% ( 39 of 58)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
63% ( 22 of 35)
2nd Serve Won
62% ( 21 of 34)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
22% ( 2 of 9)
34% ( 32 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 27 of 78)
88
Total Points Won
83
W
4-6 6-3 6-4 H2H
R4
cross
Jiri Lehecka
Player
Rafael Nadal
71% ( 46 of 65)
1st Serve %
61% ( 44 of 72)
7
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
89% ( 41 of 46)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
37% ( 7 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
40% ( 2 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 1)
26% ( 17 of 65)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 28 of 72)
76
Total Points Won
61
L
7-5 6-4 H2H
R3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Pedro Cachin
78% ( 59 of 76)
1st Serve %
61% ( 74 of 122)
0
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
3
64% ( 38 of 59)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 39 of 74)
35% ( 6 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
38% ( 18 of 48)
50% ( 9 of 18)
Break Points Won
67% ( 4 of 6)
42% ( 32 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 65 of 122)
109
Total Points Won
89
W
6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
W
7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Darwin Blanch
62% ( 24 of 39)
1st Serve %
69% ( 27 of 39)
2
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
2
79% ( 19 of 24)
1st Serve Won
52% ( 14 of 27)
73% ( 11 of 15)
2nd Serve Won
17% ( 2 of 12)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
23% ( 9 of 39)
Rtn Points Won
59% ( 23 of 39)
53
Total Points Won
25
W
6-1 6-0 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
L
7-5 6-1 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65% ( 32 of 49)
1st Serve %
49% ( 27 of 55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78% ( 25 of 32)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 19 of 27)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 10 of 28)
40% ( 4 of 10)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
31% ( 15 of 49)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 26 of 55)
60
Total Points Won
44
W
6-2 6-3 H2H
QF
cross
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61% ( 67 of 109)
1st Serve %
73% ( 79 of 108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76% ( 51 of 67)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 58 of 79)
48% ( 20 of 42)
2nd Serve Won
45% ( 13 of 29)
67% ( 2 of 3)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
35% ( 38 of 109)
Rtn Points Won
34% ( 37 of 108)
108
Total Points Won
109
L
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 H2H

Alex De Minaur Recent Matches Played

OPPONENT RESULT Score H2H
QF
L
w/o H2H
R4
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Arthur Fils
54% ( 60 of 112)
1st Serve %
57% ( 71 of 124)
2
Aces
8
4
Double Faults
7
72% ( 43 of 60)
1st Serve Won
56% ( 40 of 71)
52% ( 27 of 52)
2nd Serve Won
43% ( 23 of 53)
56% ( 9 of 16)
Break Points Won
36% ( 5 of 14)
38% ( 42 of 112)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 61 of 124)
131
Total Points Won
105
W
6-2 6-4 4-6 6-3 H2H
R3
W
w/o H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Jaume Antoni Munar Clar
56% ( 45 of 81)
1st Serve %
47% ( 41 of 88)
8
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
9
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 26 of 41)
56% ( 20 of 36)
2nd Serve Won
32% ( 15 of 47)
47% ( 8 of 17)
Break Points Won
50% ( 3 of 6)
36% ( 29 of 81)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 47 of 88)
99
Total Points Won
70
W
6-2 6-2 7-5 H2H
R1
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
James Duckworth
51% ( 63 of 124)
1st Serve %
58% ( 100 of 173)
16
Aces
9
7
Double Faults
4
81% ( 51 of 63)
1st Serve Won
64% ( 64 of 100)
49% ( 30 of 61)
2nd Serve Won
47% ( 34 of 73)
16% ( 3 of 19)
Break Points Won
43% ( 3 of 7)
35% ( 43 of 124)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 75 of 173)
156
Total Points Won
141
W
7-6(1) 7-6(3) 7-6(4) H2H
R1
cross
Lorenzo Musetti
Player
Alex De Minaur
60% ( 61 of 102)
1st Serve %
54% ( 35 of 65)
7
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
2
72% ( 44 of 61)
1st Serve Won
83% ( 29 of 35)
32% ( 13 of 41)
2nd Serve Won
40% ( 12 of 30)
100% ( 4 of 4)
Break Points Won
33% ( 4 of 12)
44% ( 45 of 102)
Rtn Points Won
37% ( 24 of 65)
81
Total Points Won
86
L
1-6 6-4 6-2 H2H
F
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Sebastian Korda
53% ( 30 of 57)
1st Serve %
61% ( 44 of 72)
2
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
4
77% ( 23 of 30)
1st Serve Won
55% ( 24 of 44)
37% ( 10 of 27)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 10 of 28)
36% ( 5 of 14)
Break Points Won
33% ( 2 of 6)
42% ( 24 of 57)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 38 of 72)
71
Total Points Won
58
W
6-2 6-4 H2H
SF
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Ugo Humbert
57% ( 39 of 68)
1st Serve %
56% ( 44 of 78)
2
Aces
3
4
Double Faults
1
79% ( 31 of 39)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 31 of 44)
52% ( 15 of 29)
2nd Serve Won
38% ( 13 of 34)
30% ( 3 of 10)
Break Points Won
40% ( 2 of 5)
32% ( 22 of 68)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 34 of 78)
80
Total Points Won
66
W
7-6(4) 6-3 H2H
QF
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Milos Raonic
52% ( 30 of 58)
1st Serve %
58% ( 34 of 59)
3
Aces
8
2
Double Faults
3
77% ( 23 of 30)
1st Serve Won
76% ( 26 of 34)
61% ( 17 of 28)
2nd Serve Won
24% ( 6 of 25)
57% ( 4 of 7)
Break Points Won
25% ( 1 of 4)
31% ( 18 of 58)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 27 of 59)
67
Total Points Won
50
W
7-5 6-2 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Zizou Bergs
63% ( 37 of 59)
1st Serve %
61% ( 43 of 71)
4
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
1
86% ( 32 of 37)
1st Serve Won
67% ( 29 of 43)
50% ( 11 of 22)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
38% ( 3 of 8)
Break Points Won
25% ( 1 of 4)
27% ( 16 of 59)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 28 of 71)
71
Total Points Won
59
W
7-5 6-4 H2H

Nadal Vs Minaur Prediction H2H Images To Share

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