Prediction of Ivan Gretskiy vs Fares Zakaria at M15 Sharm ElSheikh 12-03-25

• When considering second serve performance, Ivan Gretskiy outperforms Fares Zakaria, winning 43.92% of points compared to Zakaria's 40.83%. Could this slight edge favor Gretskiy in close matches? The data suggests so.
• In return games, Zakaria excels, winning 48.20% of second serve return points compared to Gretskiy’s 39.79%. On first serve returns, Zakaria also leads with 27.01% to Gretskiy’s 25.25%. Might Zakaria's superior return game influence the outcome? It seems likely.
• Under pressure, Gretskiy proves more resilient, saving 55.63% of break points, surpassing Zakaria's 49.79%. This could be pivotal in clutch moments.
• Both players have comparable overall match win rates over the past year, with Zakaria slightly ahead at 55.74% versus Gretskiy’s 55.41%. How important is this minor difference? Slightly beneficial to Zakaria.
• Analyzing surface preferences, Gretskiy is stronger on clay with a 52% win rate, while Zakaria is more proficient on hard courts with a 52% win rate. Will the playing surface tip the scales? It could play a significant role.
• In terms of competitive level, Gretskiy has faced tougher opponents with an average rank of 172.64, whereas Zakaria has faced players ranked around 450.2. Does this experience give Gretskiy a competitive advantage? Higher level experience often increases competitive sharpness.
• In deciding sets, Gretskiy has a marginally better success rate, winning 50% of such matches compared to Zakaria’s 45%. This suggests a slight edge in stamina or mental toughness in longer matches.

Editorial Prediction (December 2, 2025, UTC):

As these two athletes prepare to face off, the match is poised to be a tightly contested affair with strengths and potential challenges for both. Ivan Gretskiy has shown marginal superiority in crucial aspects such as second serve performance and mental fortitude under pressure, which could be decisive factors during pivotal game points.

Conversely, Fares Zakaria displays remarkable skill in returning games and is likely to put Gretskiy on the defensive with his aggressive returns. This strength could disrupt Gretskiy's rhythm, especially on his second serve, where Zakaria excels in converting opportunities.

The surface of the match could play a crucial role; should it be on hard courts, Zakaria's preference might lend him an edge. However, Gretskiy's ability to compete against higher-ranked players might provide the experience needed in high-pressure situations.

Ultimately, considering the combination of return prowess, surface advantage, and overall recent form, Fares Zakaria may have the upper hand in this encounter, making him a slight favorite to win this upcoming tennis match.