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Carlos Alcaraz vs Rafael Nadal Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com
By Wojtek Kolan
At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Alcaraz vs Nadal analysis and find out who is favored!
Carlos Alcaraz vs Rafael Nadal Important H2H Prediction Stats:
- Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Alcaraz has won 56.97% of points on his second serve, while Nadal has won 52%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
- Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Alcaraz, in recent form, has won 56.41% of his opponent's second serve points, while Nadal has won 53.54%. The same stats for first serve returns are 35.3% and 29.84% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
- Under pressure analysis: Alcaraz has saved 59.3% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Nadal has saved 55.56% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
- Performance overview: Over the last year Alcaraz has won 81.82% of matches played (W/L 63/ 14), with Nadal winning 60% (W/L 3/ 2) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
- Best surface: Alcaraz has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 89% (W/L 16/ 2), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 57% (W/L 13/ 10). Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 502/ 54), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38).
- Player level: In the last year, Alcaraz has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 80% of matches (W/L 24/ 6), where as Nadal has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 60% of matches (W/L 3/ 2). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
- Direct H2H matches: They have played 3 times before with Alcaraz winning 1 times. They have played 8 sets in total, with Alcaraz winning 3 and Nadal winning 5. The last match between Alcaraz and Nadal was at the Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid, 06-05-2022, Quarterfinals, Clay with Carlos Alcaraz getting the victory .
- Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 2:19:37.
- Deciding set H2H prediction: Alcaraz and Nadal have played a deciding set 2 times, with Alcaraz winning 1 times and Nadal 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
- Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 0 tiebreaks against each other with Alcaraz winning 0, and Nadal 0.
- Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Alcaraz has played against opponents with an average rank of 87.29 while Nadal has played against players with an average rank of 106.2.
- Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Alcaraz has won 76% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Nadal has won 0% in all matches played on tour.
- Break point conversion: In recent form, Alcaraz has converted 41.84% of breakpoint opportunities, and Nadal has converted 42.42% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
Head-to-head: Alcaraz 1 - 2 Nadal
3
Rank
1
High
20
Age
R
Plays
1
Total2
0
Hard1
1
Clay1
0
Indoor0
0
Grass0
644
Rank
1
High
37
Age
L
Plays
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
W
L
Form
W
L
L
W
L
W
W
L
W
L
79% (245-67)
Career Total W/L
82% (1115-238)
79% (15-4)
YTD W/L
60% (3-2)
$18,748,645
Career Prize Money
$96,415,145
1
YTD Titles
0
Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.
| stats | Carlos Alcaraz | Rafael Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| All H2H Matches | 1 | 2 |
| Sets Won | 3 | 5 |
| Games Won | 29 | 39 |
| Aces (Total) | 5 | 4 |
| DFs (Total) | 9 | 8 |
| Avg Match Time | 2:19:37 | 2:19:37 |
| 1st Serve % | 60% (124/208) | 66% (150/227) |
| 1st Serve Win% | 59% (73/124) | 64% (96/150) |
| 2nd Serve Win% | 45% (38/84) | 52% (40/77) |
| BPs Won% (Total) | 45% (10/22) | 38% (14/37) |
| Return Points W% | 40% (91/227) | 47% (97/208) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Deciding Set Win% | 50% (1/2) | 50% (1/2) |
| 1st set W, W | 100% (1/1) | 100% (2/2) |
| 1st set W, L | 0% (1/0) | 0% (2/0) |
| 1st set L, W | 0% (2/0) | 0% (1/0) |
| Winning Player | Losing Player | Score | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6-2 1-6 6-3 |
Stats 
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Rafael Nadal
56%
(
39 of
70)
1st Serve %
70%
(
52 of
74)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
1
67%
(
26 of
39)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
30 of
52)
52%
(
16 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
59%
(
13 of
22)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
33%
(
3 of
9)
40%
(
28 of
70)
Rtn Points Won
42%
(
31 of
74)
73
Total Points Won
71
|
||||
| 6-4 4-6 6-3 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
67%
(
72 of
108)
1st Serve %
63%
(
63 of
100)
2
Aces
1
4
Double Faults
3
63%
(
45 of
72)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
38 of
63)
44%
(
16 of
36)
2nd Serve Won
46%
(
17 of
37)
29%
(
6 of
21)
Break Points Won
36%
(
5 of
14)
44%
(
47 of
108)
Rtn Points Won
45%
(
45 of
100)
106
Total Points Won
102
|
||||
| 6-1 6-2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
58%
(
26 of
45)
1st Serve %
58%
(
22 of
38)
1
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
3
81%
(
21 of
26)
1st Serve Won
41%
(
9 of
22)
58%
(
11 of
19)
2nd Serve Won
31%
(
5 of
16)
71%
(
5 of
7)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
29%
(
13 of
45)
Rtn Points Won
63%
(
24 of
38)
56
Total Points Won
27
|
||||
Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents
| stats | Carlos Alcaraz | Rafael Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| YTD W/L | 79% (15/4) | 60% (3/2) |
| Sets Win/Loss | 78% (35/10) | 64% (7/4) |
| Games Win/Loss | 61% (248/159) | 57% (59/45) |
| Hard Win/Loss | 87% (13/2) | 67% (2/1) |
| Clay Win/Loss | 50% (2/2) | 50% (1/1) |
| Indoor Hard W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Grass Win/Loss | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Aces pg | 0.3 | 0.28 |
| Aces Total | 61 | 14 |
| DFs per game | 0.15 | 0.2 |
| DFs Total | 31 | 10 |
| Avg Match Time | 1:44:44 | 1:55:33 |
| Avg Opp Rank | 132.47 | 106.2 |
| 1st Serve % | 67% (802/1191) | 69% (222/322) |
| 1st Serve W% | 75% (598/802) | 74% (164/222) |
| 2nd Serve W% | 57% (222/389) | 52% (52/100) |
| BPs Won% Total | 43% (68/159) | 42% (14/33) |
| Return Pts W% | 44% (595/1361) | 39% (125/318) |
| Slam W/L | 80% (4/1) | 0% (0/0) |
| Masters W/L | 90% (9/1) | 0% (0/0) |
| Cups W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Main Tour W/L | 50% (2/2) | 60% (3/2) |
| Tour Finals W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Challenger W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Futures W/L | 0% (0/0) | 0% (0/0) |
| Best of 3 Sets W% | 85% (11/13) | 60% (3/5) |
| Best of 5 Sets W% | 80% (4/5) | 0% (0/0) |
| TBs Win% (Total) | 63% (5/8) | 0% (0/1) |
| Deciding Set W% | 100% (2/2) | 0% (0/1) |
| 1st set W, W | 100% (13/13) | 75% (4/3) |
| 1st set W, L | 0% (13/0) | 25% (4/1) |
| 1st set L, W | 40% (5/2) | 0% (1/0) |
Carlos Alcaraz Recent Matches Played
Before:
| opponent | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QF |
Stats
Grigor Dimitrov
Player
Carlos Alcaraz
63%
(
35 of
56)
1st Serve %
58%
(
34 of
59)
4
Aces
4
0
Double Faults
3
77%
(
27 of
35)
1st Serve Won
56%
(
19 of
34)
48%
(
10 of
21)
2nd Serve Won
52%
(
13 of
25)
50%
(
4 of
8)
Break Points Won
20%
(
1 of
5)
34%
(
19 of
56)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
27 of
59)
64
Total Points Won
51
|
6-2 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Lorenzo Musetti
64%
(
35 of
55)
1st Serve %
68%
(
40 of
59)
3
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
0
74%
(
26 of
35)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
25 of
40)
55%
(
11 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
37%
(
7 of
19)
36%
(
4 of
11)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
33%
(
18 of
55)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
27 of
59)
64
Total Points Won
50
|
6-3 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Gael Monfils
81%
(
38 of
47)
1st Serve %
64%
(
30 of
47)
1
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
6
76%
(
29 of
38)
1st Serve Won
67%
(
20 of
30)
44%
(
4 of
9)
2nd Serve Won
18%
(
3 of
17)
67%
(
4 of
6)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
30%
(
14 of
47)
Rtn Points Won
51%
(
24 of
47)
57
Total Points Won
37
|
6-2 6-4 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Roberto Carballes Baena
71%
(
34 of
48)
1st Serve %
62%
(
33 of
53)
3
Aces
0
1
Double Faults
3
79%
(
27 of
34)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
19 of
33)
36%
(
5 of
14)
2nd Serve Won
30%
(
6 of
20)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
3)
33%
(
16 of
48)
Rtn Points Won
53%
(
28 of
53)
60
Total Points Won
41
|
6-2 6-1 | H2H | ||
| F |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Daniil Medvedev
65%
(
40 of
62)
1st Serve %
61%
(
48 of
79)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
75%
(
30 of
40)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
30 of
48)
68%
(
15 of
22)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
14 of
31)
30%
(
3 of
10)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
27%
(
17 of
62)
Rtn Points Won
44%
(
35 of
79)
80
Total Points Won
61
|
7-6(5) 6-1 | H2H | ||
| SF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Jannik Sinner
65%
(
47 of
72)
1st Serve %
62%
(
46 of
74)
0
Aces
1
2
Double Faults
2
70%
(
33 of
47)
1st Serve Won
65%
(
30 of
46)
52%
(
13 of
25)
2nd Serve Won
54%
(
15 of
28)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
36%
(
26 of
72)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
29 of
74)
75
Total Points Won
71
|
1-6 6-3 6-2 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Alexander Zverev
79%
(
31 of
39)
1st Serve %
78%
(
49 of
63)
1
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
2
87%
(
27 of
31)
1st Serve Won
51%
(
25 of
49)
75%
(
6 of
8)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
7 of
14)
80%
(
4 of
5)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
15%
(
6 of
39)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
31 of
63)
64
Total Points Won
38
|
6-3 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R4 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Fabian Marozsan
63%
(
31 of
49)
1st Serve %
55%
(
32 of
58)
4
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
1
84%
(
26 of
31)
1st Serve Won
72%
(
23 of
32)
67%
(
12 of
18)
2nd Serve Won
38%
(
10 of
26)
38%
(
3 of
8)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
2)
22%
(
11 of
49)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
25 of
58)
63
Total Points Won
44
|
6-3 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R3 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Felix Auger Aliassime
73%
(
32 of
44)
1st Serve %
67%
(
35 of
52)
3
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
5
78%
(
25 of
32)
1st Serve Won
54%
(
19 of
35)
67%
(
8 of
12)
2nd Serve Won
47%
(
8 of
17)
57%
(
4 of
7)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
1)
25%
(
11 of
44)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
25 of
52)
58
Total Points Won
38
|
6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Carlos Alcaraz
Player
Matteo Arnaldi
57%
(
43 of
76)
1st Serve %
57%
(
52 of
92)
2
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
0
86%
(
37 of
43)
1st Serve Won
60%
(
31 of
52)
55%
(
18 of
33)
2nd Serve Won
43%
(
17 of
40)
46%
(
6 of
13)
Break Points Won
25%
(
1 of
4)
28%
(
21 of
76)
Rtn Points Won
48%
(
44 of
92)
99
Total Points Won
69
|
6-7(5) 6-0 6-1 | H2H | ||
view more
Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played
Before:
| opponent | Score | H2H | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R2 |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52%
(
28 of
54)
1st Serve %
68%
(
50 of
73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75%
(
21 of
28)
1st Serve Won
58%
(
29 of
50)
65%
(
17 of
26)
2nd Serve Won
35%
(
8 of
23)
56%
(
5 of
9)
Break Points Won
33%
(
1 of
3)
30%
(
16 of
54)
Rtn Points Won
49%
(
36 of
73)
74
Total Points Won
53
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65%
(
32 of
49)
1st Serve %
49%
(
27 of
55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78%
(
25 of
32)
1st Serve Won
70%
(
19 of
27)
53%
(
9 of
17)
2nd Serve Won
36%
(
10 of
28)
40%
(
4 of
10)
Break Points Won
50%
(
1 of
2)
31%
(
15 of
49)
Rtn Points Won
47%
(
26 of
55)
60
Total Points Won
44
|
6-2 6-3 | H2H | ||
| QF |
Stats
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61%
(
67 of
109)
1st Serve %
73%
(
79 of
108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76%
(
51 of
67)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
58 of
79)
48%
(
20 of
42)
2nd Serve Won
45%
(
13 of
29)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
25%
(
2 of
8)
35%
(
38 of
109)
Rtn Points Won
34%
(
37 of
108)
108
Total Points Won
109
|
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jason Murray Kubler
65%
(
30 of
46)
1st Serve %
76%
(
35 of
46)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
3
80%
(
24 of
30)
1st Serve Won
57%
(
20 of
35)
63%
(
10 of
16)
2nd Serve Won
18%
(
2 of
11)
67%
(
4 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
4)
26%
(
12 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
52%
(
24 of
46)
58
Total Points Won
34
|
6-1 6-2 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Dominic Thiem
67%
(
31 of
46)
1st Serve %
63%
(
34 of
54)
3
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
3
90%
(
28 of
31)
1st Serve Won
68%
(
23 of
34)
80%
(
12 of
15)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
50%
(
3 of
6)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
0)
13%
(
6 of
46)
Rtn Points Won
39%
(
21 of
54)
61
Total Points Won
39
|
7-5 6-1 | H2H | ||
| R2 |
Stats
Mackenzie Mcdonald
Player
Rafael Nadal
66%
(
63 of
95)
1st Serve %
64%
(
65 of
102)
14
Aces
6
2
Double Faults
2
68%
(
43 of
63)
1st Serve Won
62%
(
40 of
65)
63%
(
20 of
32)
2nd Serve Won
49%
(
18 of
37)
63%
(
5 of
8)
Break Points Won
50%
(
2 of
4)
34%
(
32 of
95)
Rtn Points Won
43%
(
44 of
102)
107
Total Points Won
90
|
6-4 6-4 7-5 | H2H | ||
| R1 |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Jack Draper
66%
(
78 of
119)
1st Serve %
58%
(
67 of
115)
6
Aces
13
3
Double Faults
3
73%
(
57 of
78)
1st Serve Won
63%
(
42 of
67)
51%
(
21 of
41)
2nd Serve Won
56%
(
27 of
48)
50%
(
6 of
12)
Break Points Won
36%
(
4 of
11)
34%
(
41 of
119)
Rtn Points Won
40%
(
46 of
115)
124
Total Points Won
110
|
7-5 2-6 6-4 6-1 | H2H | ||
| Robin |
Stats
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
62%
(
62 of
100)
1st Serve %
61%
(
56 of
92)
3
Aces
2
6
Double Faults
4
63%
(
39 of
62)
1st Serve Won
61%
(
34 of
56)
50%
(
19 of
38)
2nd Serve Won
44%
(
16 of
36)
46%
(
6 of
13)
Break Points Won
33%
(
4 of
12)
42%
(
42 of
100)
Rtn Points Won
46%
(
42 of
92)
100
Total Points Won
92
|
3-6 6-1 7-5 | H2H | ||
| Robin |
Stats
Cameron Norrie
Player
Rafael Nadal
65%
(
57 of
88)
1st Serve %
58%
(
55 of
95)
6
Aces
10
2
Double Faults
4
74%
(
42 of
57)
1st Serve Won
73%
(
40 of
55)
58%
(
18 of
31)
2nd Serve Won
53%
(
21 of
40)
18%
(
2 of
11)
Break Points Won
17%
(
1 of
6)
32%
(
28 of
88)
Rtn Points Won
36%
(
34 of
95)
94
Total Points Won
89
|
3-6 6-3 6-4 | H2H | ||
| Robin |
Stats
Rafael Nadal
Player
Casper Ruud
67%
(
41 of
61)
1st Serve %
70%
(
46 of
66)
16
Aces
4
1
Double Faults
0
93%
(
38 of
41)
1st Serve Won
72%
(
33 of
46)
60%
(
12 of
20)
2nd Serve Won
50%
(
10 of
20)
67%
(
2 of
3)
Break Points Won
0%
(
0 of
2)
18%
(
11 of
61)
Rtn Points Won
35%
(
23 of
66)
73
Total Points Won
54
|
7-5 7-5 | H2H | ||
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