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Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal Prediction, Head-to-Head, Odds & Pick - Matchstat.com

By Wojtek Kolan

At Matchstat.com we give you unbeatable in-depth analysis of past and current event tennis stats, to give you accurate tennis predictions, picks, odds and value bets. Let's dive in with our Minaur vs Nadal analysis and find out who is favored!

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Up to 78% win accuracy on past h2h matches

Alex De Minaur vs Rafael Nadal Important H2H Prediction Stats:

Head-to-head: Minaur 2 - 4 Nadal

  • Second serve performance recent form: In recent form (last 6 months), Minaur has won 56.39% of points on his second serve, while Nadal has won 53.08%. There is a high correlation between this stat and match prediction accuracy.
  • Return game stats recent form: Return stats show Minaur, in recent form, has won 56.33% of his opponent's second serve points, while Nadal has won 53.23%. The same stats for first serve returns are 34.71% and 31.06% respectively and this has a high correlation to pick who is favored in this H2H matchup.
  • Under pressure analysis: Minaur has saved 60.57% of breakpoints in recent form, whereas Nadal has saved 58.21% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
  • Performance overview: Over the last year Minaur has won 68.29% of matches played (W/L 56/ 26), with Nadal winning 58.33% (W/L 7/ 5) that gives us an overall head-to head prediction overview.
  • Best surface: Minaur has their best career surface win % on Grass, winning 67% (W/L 44/ 22), and worse career win % on Clay, winning 55% (W/L 62/ 50). Nadal has their best career surface win % on Clay, winning 90% (W/L 506/ 57), and worse career win % on I.hard, winning 68% (W/L 82/ 38).
  • Player level: In the last year, Minaur has played most of their matches on the Main tour, winning 71.05% of matches (W/L 27/ 11), where as Nadal has played most of their matches on the Masters series, winning 66.67% of matches (W/L 4/ 2). When comparing stats between players to predict the favorite, it is of course all relative to the event level they have been playing at.
  • Direct H2H matches: They have played 6 times before with Minaur winning 2 times. They have played 16 sets in total, with Minaur winning 5 and Nadal winning 11. The last match between Minaur and Nadal was at the Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid, 27-04-2024, Second, Clay with Rafael Nadal getting the victory 7-6(6) 6-3.
  • Head to head match duration: In past head to head matches, the average match time between these players has been 2:12:22.
  • Deciding set H2H prediction: Minaur and Nadal have played a deciding set 2 times, with Minaur winning 1 times and Nadal 1 times. Very useful for predicting the outcome if this match goes the distance.
  • Head-to-Head extreme pressure situations: They have played 1 tiebreaks against each other with Minaur winning 0, and Nadal 1.
  • Opponent quality stats: Over the last 12 months, Minaur has played against opponents with an average rank of 85.49 while Nadal has played against players with an average rank of 95.92.
  • Deciding set performance vs all players: If you are interested in live predictions and betting, if this match goes into a deciding set, Minaur has won 70% of deciding sets over the last 12 months, while Nadal has won 67% in all matches played on tour.
  • Break point conversion: In recent form, Minaur has converted 44.72% of breakpoint opportunities, and Nadal has converted 40.66% of their chances to break their opponents serve. A telling stat for in-game live betting tips when either player has a breakpoint opportunity.
bet365
Alex De Minaur

10

Total

0

Mast

1

Chall

0

Slam

8

Main

1

Minor

11

Rank

9

High

25

Age

R

Plays

2

Total

4

1

Hard

2

1

Clay

1

0

Indoor

0

0

Grass

1

275

Rank

1

High

37

Age

L

Plays

Rafael Nadal

94

Total

36

Mast

2

Chall

22

Slam

33

Main

0

Minor

2

Total

4

1

Hard

2

1

Clay

1

0

Indoor

0

0

Grass

1

W W L W L L W W L W

Form

L W L W W W L W L L

63% (336-195)

Career Total W/L

82% (1119-241)

72% (26-10)

YTD W/L

58% (7-5)

$8,743,855

Career Prize Money

$96,533,810

1

YTD Titles

0

Currently displayed stats includes matches of all levels. To exclude lower level events (as per ATP / WTA official stats) toggle button in page footer.

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Minaur VS Nadal H2H Stats Used In Our Predictions

stats Alex De Minaur Rafael Nadal
All H2H Matches 2 4
Sets Won 5 11
Games Won 64 84
Aces (Total) 24 18
DFs (Total) 20 17
Avg Match Time 2:12:22 2:12:22
1st Serve % 61% (286/467) 68% (321/474)
1st Serve Win% 65% (186/286) 72% (230/321)
2nd Serve Win% 50% (91/181) 48% (74/153)
BPs Won% (Total) 42% (15/36) 46% (23/50)
Return Points W% 35% (164/474) 40% (188/467)
Best of 3 Sets W% 50% (2/4) 50% (2/4)
Best of 5 Sets W% 0% (0/2) 100% (2/2)
TBs Win% (Total) 0% (0/1) 100% (1/1)
Deciding Set Win% 50% (1/2) 50% (1/2)
1st set W, W 50% (2/1) 75% (4/3)
1st set W, L 50% (2/1) 25% (4/1)
1st set L, W 25% (4/1) 50% (2/1)

Minaur VS Nadal H2h Matches played

Winning Player Losing Player Score
7-6(6) 6-3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
7-5 6-1
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
3-6 6-1 7-5
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
62% ( 62 of 100)
1st Serve %
61% ( 56 of 92)
3
Aces
2
6
Double Faults
4
63% ( 39 of 62)
1st Serve Won
61% ( 34 of 56)
50% ( 19 of 38)
2nd Serve Won
44% ( 16 of 36)
46% ( 6 of 13)
Break Points Won
33% ( 4 of 12)
42% ( 42 of 100)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 42 of 92)
100
Total Points Won
92
4-6 7-5 6-1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 61 of 84)
1st Serve %
73% ( 55 of 75)
5
Aces
6
3
Double Faults
1
79% ( 48 of 61)
1st Serve Won
67% ( 37 of 55)
43% ( 10 of 23)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 10 of 20)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
67% ( 2 of 3)
31% ( 26 of 84)
Rtn Points Won
37% ( 28 of 75)
86
Total Points Won
73
6-1 6-2 6-4
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
75% ( 65 of 87)
1st Serve %
57% ( 54 of 94)
6
Aces
3
6
Double Faults
2
82% ( 53 of 65)
1st Serve Won
63% ( 34 of 54)
36% ( 8 of 22)
2nd Serve Won
40% ( 16 of 40)
38% ( 5 of 13)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 4)
30% ( 26 of 87)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 44 of 94)
105
Total Points Won
76
6-1 6-2 6-4
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
58% ( 44 of 76)
1st Serve %
56% ( 43 of 77)
5
Aces
8
1
Double Faults
5
77% ( 34 of 44)
1st Serve Won
60% ( 26 of 43)
72% ( 23 of 32)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 17 of 34)
42% ( 5 of 12)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 3)
25% ( 19 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 34 of 77)
91
Total Points Won
62

Stats Breakdown Vs All H2H Opponents

stats Alex De Minaur Rafael Nadal
YTD W/L 72% (26/10) 58% (7/5)
Sets Win/Loss 68% (60/28) 54% (15/13)
Games Win/Loss 57% (456/343) 54% (143/123)
Hard Win/Loss 75% (15/5) 67% (2/1)
Clay Win/Loss 64% (7/4) 56% (5/4)
Indoor Hard W/L 80% (4/1) 0% (0/0)
Grass Win/Loss 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Aces pg 0.38 0.19
Aces Total 147 24
DFs per game 0.19 0.17
DFs Total 73 22
Avg Match Time 1:45:43 2:6:53
Avg Opp Rank 83.03 95.92
1st Serve % 55% (1275/2316) 69% (568/828)
1st Serve W% 72% (917/1275) 68% (387/568)
2nd Serve W% 56% (587/1041) 53% (138/260)
BPs Won% Total 45% (127/284) 41% (37/91)
Return Pts W% 43% (1119/2609) 39% (329/838)
Slam W/L 80% (4/1) 0% (0/1)
Masters W/L 64% (9/5) 67% (4/2)
Cups W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Main Tour W/L 76% (13/4) 60% (3/2)
Tour Finals W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Challenger W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Futures W/L 0% (0/0) 0% (0/0)
Best of 3 Sets W% 70% (21/30) 64% (7/11)
Best of 5 Sets W% 83% (5/6) 0% (0/1)
TBs Win% (Total) 50% (4/8) 25% (1/4)
Deciding Set W% 56% (5/9) 67% (2/3)
1st set W, W 95% (22/21) 86% (7/6)
1st set W, L 5% (22/1) 14% (7/1)
1st set L, W 36% (14/5) 20% (5/1)

Alex De Minaur Recent Matches Played

opponent Result Score H2H
R1
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Alex Michelsen
52% ( 32 of 62)
1st Serve %
75% ( 61 of 81)
2
Aces
0
4
Double Faults
2
75% ( 24 of 32)
1st Serve Won
46% ( 28 of 61)
67% ( 20 of 30)
2nd Serve Won
30% ( 6 of 20)
62% ( 8 of 13)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
29% ( 18 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
58% ( 47 of 81)
91
Total Points Won
52
W
6-1 6-0 6-2 H2H
R4
cross
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Player
Alex De Minaur
69% ( 27 of 39)
1st Serve %
66% ( 27 of 41)
0
Aces
0
0
Double Faults
1
74% ( 20 of 27)
1st Serve Won
48% ( 13 of 27)
83% ( 10 of 12)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 5 of 14)
63% ( 5 of 8)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
23% ( 9 of 39)
Rtn Points Won
56% ( 23 of 41)
53
Total Points Won
27
L
6-1 6-2 H2H
R3
W
6-7(2) 6-4 6-4 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Roberto Carballes Baena
57% ( 27 of 47)
1st Serve %
63% ( 35 of 56)
4
Aces
1
3
Double Faults
5
74% ( 20 of 27)
1st Serve Won
40% ( 14 of 35)
55% ( 11 of 20)
2nd Serve Won
43% ( 9 of 21)
46% ( 6 of 13)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 16 of 47)
Rtn Points Won
59% ( 33 of 56)
64
Total Points Won
39
W
6-3 6-2 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
L
7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R3
cross
Arthur Fils
Player
Alex De Minaur
61% ( 34 of 56)
1st Serve %
59% ( 41 of 69)
4
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
4
71% ( 24 of 34)
1st Serve Won
61% ( 25 of 41)
55% ( 12 of 22)
2nd Serve Won
39% ( 11 of 28)
50% ( 5 of 10)
Break Points Won
67% ( 2 of 3)
36% ( 20 of 56)
Rtn Points Won
48% ( 33 of 69)
69
Total Points Won
56
L
7-5 6-2 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
W
7-5 6-1 H2H
QF
cross
Novak Djokovic
Player
Alex De Minaur
66% ( 42 of 64)
1st Serve %
42% ( 30 of 71)
2
Aces
3
1
Double Faults
4
64% ( 27 of 42)
1st Serve Won
60% ( 18 of 30)
59% ( 13 of 22)
2nd Serve Won
49% ( 20 of 41)
45% ( 5 of 11)
Break Points Won
43% ( 3 of 7)
38% ( 24 of 64)
Rtn Points Won
46% ( 33 of 71)
73
Total Points Won
62
L
7-5 6-4 H2H
R3
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Alexei Popyrin
63% ( 27 of 43)
1st Serve %
67% ( 38 of 57)
2
Aces
1
0
Double Faults
1
70% ( 19 of 27)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 25 of 38)
94% ( 15 of 16)
2nd Serve Won
37% ( 7 of 19)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
100% ( 1 of 1)
21% ( 9 of 43)
Rtn Points Won
44% ( 25 of 57)
59
Total Points Won
41
W
6-3 6-4 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Tallon Griekspoor
51% ( 36 of 70)
1st Serve %
66% ( 68 of 103)
2
Aces
6
3
Double Faults
4
78% ( 28 of 36)
1st Serve Won
65% ( 44 of 68)
47% ( 16 of 34)
2nd Serve Won
43% ( 15 of 35)
31% ( 4 of 13)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
37% ( 26 of 70)
Rtn Points Won
43% ( 44 of 103)
88
Total Points Won
85
W
2-6 6-2 6-3 H2H

Rafael Nadal Recent Matches Played

opponent Result Score H2H
R1
cross
Alexander Zverev
Player
Rafael Nadal
77% ( 72 of 93)
1st Serve %
70% ( 78 of 111)
8
Aces
2
3
Double Faults
3
72% ( 52 of 72)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 45 of 78)
48% ( 10 of 21)
2nd Serve Won
48% ( 16 of 33)
33% ( 6 of 18)
Break Points Won
18% ( 2 of 11)
33% ( 31 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
45% ( 50 of 111)
112
Total Points Won
92
L
6-3 7-6(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Hubert Hurkacz
Player
Rafael Nadal
54% ( 30 of 56)
1st Serve %
72% ( 38 of 53)
9
Aces
1
1
Double Faults
1
83% ( 25 of 30)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 20 of 38)
62% ( 16 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
53% ( 8 of 15)
57% ( 4 of 7)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 7)
27% ( 15 of 56)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 25 of 53)
66
Total Points Won
43
L
6-1 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Zizou Bergs
62% ( 58 of 93)
1st Serve %
56% ( 44 of 78)
3
Aces
7
4
Double Faults
4
67% ( 39 of 58)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
63% ( 22 of 35)
2nd Serve Won
62% ( 21 of 34)
43% ( 3 of 7)
Break Points Won
22% ( 2 of 9)
34% ( 32 of 93)
Rtn Points Won
35% ( 27 of 78)
88
Total Points Won
83
W
4-6 6-3 6-4 H2H
R4
cross
Jiri Lehecka
Player
Rafael Nadal
71% ( 46 of 65)
1st Serve %
61% ( 44 of 72)
7
Aces
2
1
Double Faults
2
89% ( 41 of 46)
1st Serve Won
68% ( 30 of 44)
37% ( 7 of 19)
2nd Serve Won
50% ( 14 of 28)
40% ( 2 of 5)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 1)
26% ( 17 of 65)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 28 of 72)
76
Total Points Won
61
L
7-5 6-4 H2H
R3
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Pedro Cachin
78% ( 59 of 76)
1st Serve %
61% ( 74 of 122)
0
Aces
3
0
Double Faults
3
64% ( 38 of 59)
1st Serve Won
53% ( 39 of 74)
35% ( 6 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
38% ( 18 of 48)
50% ( 9 of 18)
Break Points Won
67% ( 4 of 6)
42% ( 32 of 76)
Rtn Points Won
53% ( 65 of 122)
109
Total Points Won
89
W
6-1 6-7(5) 6-3 H2H
R2
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Alex De Minaur
73% ( 45 of 62)
1st Serve %
66% ( 44 of 67)
0
Aces
2
2
Double Faults
3
71% ( 32 of 45)
1st Serve Won
66% ( 29 of 44)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
52% ( 12 of 23)
80% ( 4 of 5)
Break Points Won
50% ( 2 of 4)
34% ( 21 of 62)
Rtn Points Won
39% ( 26 of 67)
67
Total Points Won
62
W
7-6(6) 6-3 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Darwin Blanch
62% ( 24 of 39)
1st Serve %
69% ( 27 of 39)
2
Aces
2
0
Double Faults
2
79% ( 19 of 24)
1st Serve Won
52% ( 14 of 27)
73% ( 11 of 15)
2nd Serve Won
17% ( 2 of 12)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
0% ( 0 of 0)
23% ( 9 of 39)
Rtn Points Won
59% ( 23 of 39)
53
Total Points Won
25
W
6-1 6-0 H2H
R2
cross
Alex De Minaur
Player
Rafael Nadal
52% ( 28 of 54)
1st Serve %
68% ( 50 of 73)
2
Aces
0
3
Double Faults
1
75% ( 21 of 28)
1st Serve Won
58% ( 29 of 50)
65% ( 17 of 26)
2nd Serve Won
35% ( 8 of 23)
56% ( 5 of 9)
Break Points Won
33% ( 1 of 3)
30% ( 16 of 54)
Rtn Points Won
49% ( 36 of 73)
74
Total Points Won
53
L
7-5 6-1 H2H
R1
cross
Rafael Nadal
Player
Flavio Cobolli
65% ( 32 of 49)
1st Serve %
49% ( 27 of 55)
0
Aces
3
3
Double Faults
3
78% ( 25 of 32)
1st Serve Won
70% ( 19 of 27)
53% ( 9 of 17)
2nd Serve Won
36% ( 10 of 28)
40% ( 4 of 10)
Break Points Won
50% ( 1 of 2)
31% ( 15 of 49)
Rtn Points Won
47% ( 26 of 55)
60
Total Points Won
44
W
6-2 6-3 H2H
QF
cross
Jordan Thompson
Player
Rafael Nadal
61% ( 67 of 109)
1st Serve %
73% ( 79 of 108)
8
Aces
7
3
Double Faults
2
76% ( 51 of 67)
1st Serve Won
73% ( 58 of 79)
48% ( 20 of 42)
2nd Serve Won
45% ( 13 of 29)
67% ( 2 of 3)
Break Points Won
25% ( 2 of 8)
35% ( 38 of 109)
Rtn Points Won
34% ( 37 of 108)
108
Total Points Won
109
L
5-7 7-6(6) 6-3 H2H

Minaur Vs Nadal Prediction H2H Images To Share

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Alex De Minaur

French Open - Paris

Minaur vs Medvedev H2H Pick , could play in The Fourth round

Minaur vs Kecmanovic H2H Pick , could play in The Fourth round

Minaur vs Machac H2H Pick , could play in The Fourth round

Minaur vs Navone H2H Pick , could play in The Fourth round

Minaur vs Bublik H2H Pick , could play in The Third round

Minaur vs Struff H2H Pick , could play in The Third round

Today's H2H Tennis Betting Tips & Predictions

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