Prediction Of Nakashima Vs Cobolli H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Brandon Nakashima Play Against Flavio Cobolli?

Nakashima and Cobolli are on the Day 5 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Sunday 27 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In the upcoming match at the Madrid Open, Brandon Nakashima from the USA will be facing Flavio Cobolli from Italy. This will be the first meeting between the two players.

Nakashima, who is currently 23 years old, is ranked number 32 in the world and reached a career-high ranking of 31 in April 2025. He had a successful year in 2025 with a 13-11 record and reached the semifinals in two ATP Tour events. One of his notable achievements was reaching the semifinals in Acapulco, where he earned his 100th career win. Nakashima’s rise in the rankings began in July 2022 when he broke into the Top 50. He also had significant success in the Next Gen ATP Finals, winning the title in 2022 after reaching the semifinals the previous year. In 2022, Nakashima won his first ATP Tour title in San Diego and ended the season with a strong run in tiebreaks.

As a 19-year-old in 2021, Nakashima made back-to-back finals at the Los Cabos and Atlanta tournaments, becoming the youngest American to achieve this feat since Roddick in 2001-02. In Grand Slam events, Nakashima reached the third round in Roland Garros, the fourth round in Wimbledon, and the third round in the US Open in 2022. Notably, he achieved his first career wins against top 20 players by defeating Shapovalov in the second round of Wimbledon and Dimitrov in the second round of the US Open.

Nakashima’s goal in the Madrid Open is to reach his fifth ATP Masters 1000 Round of 16. This would be his first time reaching this stage outside of North America and his first time on clay this season. By securing his third top 50 win of 2025, following victories over No. 13 Rune and No. 35 Arnaldi, Nakashima would rise to No. 29 in the PIF ATP Live Rankings.

On the other side of the court, Flavio Cobolli is a 22-year-old player from Italy. He is currently ranked number 36 in the world and achieved a career-high ranking of 30 in September 2024. Cobolli’s journey in the rankings began in January 2022 when he broke into the top 200 and then reached the top 100 in October 2023. He reached his first ATP Tour final in Washington shortly after achieving his career-high ranking.

In 2025, Cobolli won his first ATP Tour title at the Bucharest event. This was a significant accomplishment as he entered the tournament on an eight-match losing streak on the tour-level. Cobolli also made history by becoming the first Italian champion at the Bucharest event. He earned wins over clay court champions Gasquet and Baez to secure the title. In 2024, he reached the semifinals in Geneva and reached his first final in Washington. Cobolli also had success in Grand Slam events, reaching the third round of the Australian Open and the US Open as a qualifier and a 31st seed respectively.

An important milestone in Cobolli’s career was his ATP Tour main draw debut in Parma in 2021. He saved three match points against Giron to win the match 3-6 7-6 7-6. At that time, he was ranked 429th in the world and received a wildcard entry. Cobolli also had success in junior tennis, peaking at number 8 in the junior rankings. He ended his junior career by winning the boys’ doubles title at the 2020 Roland Garros with his partner Stricker.

Cobolli’s recent achievement was defeating the number 9 player, Rune, via retirement in the second round of the Madrid Open. This win marked his first victory over a top 10 player, and he now aims to reach his second ATP Masters 1000 Round of 16. Cobolli’s previous achievement in this regard was reaching the round of 16 in Cincinnati last year, where he eventually lost to Hurkacz. Cobolli has had a strong season on clay, with a 7-2 record highlighted by his ATP Tour title in Bucharest earlier this month.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Nakashima will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Brandon Nakashima vs Flavio Cobolli prediction.