Prediction Of Minaur Vs Shapovalov H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Alex de Minaur Play Against Denis Shapovalov?

Minaur and Shapovalov are on the Day 6 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Monday 28 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In the head-to-head matchups, Alex de Minaur from Australia has a 4-0 lead against Denis Shapovalov from Canada. They previously faced off in several tournaments, including the 2022 Davis Cup Finals, where de Minaur won 3-6 6-3 7-5 on hard court. In the 2020 ATP Cup, de Minaur also emerged victorious with a score of 6-7(6) 6-4 6-2. They also met in the ATP Masters 1000 Montreal in 2022, with de Minaur winning 7-5 7-6(4). Furthermore, de Minaur defeated Shapovalov in the Stockholm Open in the quarterfinals, scoring 6-2 7-6(4).

Besides these meetings, they encountered each other in other tournaments as well. For instance, Shapovalov won against de Minaur in the 2016 Wimbledon Juniors Grass final with a score of 4-6 6-1 6-3. In the Surbiton CH Qualifying in 2017, Shapovalov also emerged victorious with a score of 6-4 3-6 6-3.

Looking at their 52-week averages, de Minaur possesses a 21% conversion rate in attack, a 69% score steal, and a 37% serve quality. His return quality is 7.3, forehand quality is 7.8, and backhand quality is 7.7. On the other hand, Shapovalov has a 27% conversion rate in attack, a 70% score steal, and a 34% serve quality. His return quality is 6.4, forehand quality is 7.8, and backhand quality is 7.1. The tour average for these metrics is a 24% conversion rate in attack, a 69% score steal, and a 31% serve quality. The average return quality is 7.9, forehand quality is 6.5, and backhand quality is 7.1.

Alex de Minaur, aged 26, is currently ranked 7th in the world and reached a career-high ranking of 6th in July 2024. He achieved the feat of becoming the first Australian to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals in singles since Hewitt in 2004. He obtained a personal-best record of 47 victories in 2022 and 2024 and secured nine ATP Tour titles, including the Acapulco titles in 2023 and 2024. De Minaur reached his first Grand Slam quarterfinal at the 2020 US Open shortly after winning his first ATP Tour doubles title at the 2020 ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati. He also advanced to the quarterfinals of the 2024 Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and US Open, and reached the quarterfinals, semifinals, and final of the 2023 Toronto ATP Masters 1000. In the Davis Cup, he played for Australia and had a 6-1 record in the 2022 season, leading Australia to its first final since 2003. Notably, he defeated No. 2 Nadal in 2023 and No. 1 Djokovic in 2024 at United Cup. De Minaur has a mixed heritage, with a Uruguayan father and Spanish mother. He divides his time between Australia and Spain and is fluent in English, Spanish, and French.

Denis Shapovalov, aged 26, is currently ranked 30th in the world and achieved a career-high ranking of 10th. He became the first Canadian US Open men’s singles quarterfinalist in 2020, joining Raonic as the second Canadian man in history to break into the Top 10. Shapovalov reached his first Grand Slam semifinal at the 2021 Wimbledon, where he defeated 2-time champion Murray and earned 5-set wins over Kohlschreiber and Khachanov. He reached the 2019 Paris final and four other ATP Masters 1000 semifinals, including the 2017 Montreal, where he upset No. 2 Nadal and became the youngest semifinalist in series history at the age of 18. His three ATP Tour titles were all won on indoor hardcourts, including the 2025 Dallas title, where he posted three top 10 wins. Shapovalov concluded his junior career by winning the 2016 Wimbledon boys’ singles title and broke into the Top 50 of PIF ATP Rankings in less than 15 months. Shapovalov has a record of 14-35 against top 10 players, with a 3-2 record in 2025. He is aiming to secure his first Top 10 win on clay since defeating No. 4 Nadal at the 2022 Rome tournament.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Minaur will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov prediction.