Prediction Of Khachanov Vs Paul H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Karen Khachanov Play Against Tommy Paul?

Khachanov and Paul are on the Day 6 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Monday 28 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

In the upcoming match between Karen Khachanov and Tommy Paul at the ATP Masters 1000 Miami, there is an interesting head-to-head dynamic as Paul currently leads 1-0. Khachanov, who is 28 years old and ranked as the World No. 25, previously achieved a career-high ranking of No. 8 in July 2019. He made it into the top 10 after ending the 2018 season at No. 11. In 2018, Khachanov caused upsets by defeating top-10 players such as Isner, A. Zverev, Thiem, and Djokovic, leading him to win the ATP Masters 1000 Paris title. However, he went on a losing streak of 23 matches against top-10 players from August 2019 to March 2023. This streak was ended when he beat No. 3 Tsitsipas en route to reaching the fourth ATP Masters 1000 SF at the 2023 Miami tournament. Khachanov also became the first unseeded ATP Masters 1000 champion since Nalbandian in 2007 at the 2018 Paris event. He has reached the quarterfinals of all four Grand Slam events, with notable runs to the 2022 US Open SF and the 2023 Australian Open SF. In the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, Khachanov represented Team ROC as the No. 4 men’s player and earned a silver medal.

Looking ahead to the Madrid tournament, Khachanov aims to make it to the fourth round for the third consecutive year, following his 2023 quarterfinal loss to No. 2 Alcaraz and 2024 fourth-round loss to No. 2 Sinner. Despite entering 2023 with a 1-5 record in Madrid, he has since improved to a 6-2 record, including a win over Opelka in the second round. In 2025, Khachanov seeks his first Top 20 win of the year, as he currently has a 0-6 record against top-20 players. His last victory against a top-20 player was against No. 9 Dimitrov in the Paris QF in November.

On the other side, Tommy Paul, 27 years old and currently ranked as the World No. 12, achieved a career-high ranking of No. 9 in January 2025. He had a successful 2024 season, accumulating a personal-best 45 wins, and garnered his biggest ATP Tour title at the London/Queen’s Club. Paul made a notable achievement at the 2023 Australian Open when he became the first American man to reach the SF since Roddick in 2009. He has a record of 7-14 against top-5 players and notably defeated No. 1 Alcaraz to reach his first ATP Masters 1000 SF at the 2023 Toronto tournament. In 2021, he reached his first ATP Tour final and claimed his first title at the Stockholm event, defeating his junior rivals Fritz and Tiafoe. The following year, Paul secured titles in Dallas, London/Queen’s Club, and Stockholm, while also reaching ATP Masters 1000 SFs in Indian Wells and Rome, where he defeated the reigning champion No. 4 Medvedev in the Rome 4R. In his junior career, he won the 2015 Roland Garros boys’ singles title, reached the 2015 Roland Garros boys’ doubles final with Blumberg, and made it to the 2015 US Open boys’ singles final, narrowly losing to Fritz.

As Paul enters the Madrid tournament, he aims to secure his third Top 30 win on clay. In the past, he defeated No. 4 Medvedev and No. 9 Hurkacz on clay en route to the Rome SF last year, which was his only prior clay court ATP Masters 1000 R16 appearance. If he reaches the fourth round in Madrid alongside Fritz and Nakashima, it would mark the third time in event history that three American men reach the Madrid R16, with Tiafoe accomplishing this feat as well. This achievement was previously seen in 2004 with Agassi, Dent, and Spadea, and in 2003 with Fish, Gambill, Ginepri, Roddick, and Spadea.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Khachanov will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Karen Khachanov vs Tommy Paul, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Karen Khachanov vs Tommy Paul prediction.