Prediction Of Dzumhur Vs Arnaldi H2H, Who Will Win At ATP Mutua Madrid Open 2025?

What Time Will Damir Dzumhur Play Against Matteo Arnaldi?

Dzumhur and Arnaldi are on the Day 6 Schedule at Mutua Madrid Open 2025 on Monday 28 April 2025. Lets breakdown the career, past stats and recent form of these players and predict who will get the victory.

Who Will Win In This Head-To-Head?

Damir Dzumhur, a 32-year-old tennis player from Bosnia and Herzegovina, will be facing off against Matteo Arnaldi from Italy. This will be their first meeting on the court. Dzumhur is currently ranked at number 63 in the world, with a career-high ranking of 23. In 2025, he has achieved a record of 11-7, including reaching the semi-finals in Bucharest and the third round in Madrid.

Dzumhur made his breakthrough into the top 100 in 2015 and the top 50 in 2017. He achieved his career-high ranking of 23 after winning his third ATP Tour title at the 2018 Antalya tournament. In 2017, he became the first player to win both the St. Petersburg and Moscow championships in the same season. He had an impressive year in 2017, with a personal-best of 36 victories. This included significant wins over players like Stan Wawrinka and Alexander Zverev. Dzumhur has reached the third round of Grand Slam tournaments on five occasions, with a notable performance at the 2018 Roland Garros, where he was leading Alexander Zverev before losing. He has also reached the round of 16 in ATP Masters 1000 tournaments three times, including a victory over Rafael Nadal in the 2016 Miami tournament. In 2024, Dzumhur went undefeated in finals on the ATP Challenger Tour, earning him a place among the players with the second-most Challenger titles in a single season.

In the current season, Dzumhur has had success on clay, including his first clay ATP Masters 1000 win since 2018. He defeated Thomaz Bellucci in the first round and Facundo Baez in the second round. This marked his first top 40 win since 2022. On clay, Dzumhur has a record of 8-5 on the ATP Tour this year. He aims to match his best result at the ATP Masters 1000 level, which is reaching the round of 16, achieved in tournaments such as 2016 Miami, 2016 Monte-Carlo, and 2018 Paris. He also hopes to record multiple top 50 wins in a single event, a feat he accomplished when he won the 2017 St. Petersburg title.

Matteo Arnaldi, a 24-year-old Italian player, is currently ranked at number 44 in the world, with a career-high ranking of 30. In 2025, he has a record of 10-9, including reaching the semi-finals in Delray Beach. At the Madrid tournament, he has a record of 5-2, having reached the third round in both 2023 and 2025.

Arnaldi made his breakthrough into the top 500 in September 2021, the top 200 in August 2022, and the top 100 in May 2023. He achieved his career-high ranking of 30 in August 2024 after advancing to his first ATP Masters 1000 semi-finals in Montreal. Prior to that, he reached his first ATP Tour quarter-finals and semi-finals at the 2023 Umag tournament, as well as his first Grand Slam fourth round at the 2023 US Open. Arnaldi also had notable victories, including defeating Casper Ruud, who was ranked number 4 at the time, at the 2023 Madrid ATP Masters 1000 tournament. He also earned his first ATP Tour win in Barcelona.

In his career, Arnaldi has a challenger record of 4-2 in finals, with a total record of 59-39. He won his first title on home soil at Francavilla al Mare. In his junior career, he reached a peak ranking of 22, with a singles record of 80-42 and three titles, as well as a doubles record of 34-35 and two titles.

In the current Madrid tournament, Arnaldi had a significant victory over the three-time champion Novak Djokovic in the second round. This marked his second win over a top 5 player. Now, as a 24-year-old, Arnaldi aims to advance to the round of 16 in an ATP Masters 1000 tournament for the third time in his career. He previously reached this stage in the Miami and Montreal tournaments last year, where he lost to Manuel Guinard and Andrey Rublev, respectively.

My Conclusion / Prediction:

My pick is that Dzumhur will win.
Matchstat.com has an Artificial Intelligence (Ai) prediction model that is trained on all professional ATP and WTA past matches.

To find out who our model thinks will win for Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi, have a look at the prediction here:

Matchstat.com Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi prediction.