Sebastian Baez vs Gabriel Diallo Prediction – ATP Cincinnati Open – 9th August 2025 Best Bets

Sebastian Baez and Gabriel Diallo Prediction Head To Head Summary

Baez vs Diallo Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Diallo has a 71.94% chance to win this match.

Baez → 3.25. Diallo → 1.39.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Baez vs Diallo Upcoming Match Details:

Baez will play Diallo on Hard court in the Second round at the ATP Cincinnati Open event in Cincinnati Men’s Singles 2025 on 9th August 2025.

Head-to-Head: Baez 1-0 Diallo

The current Head to Head score is 1-0. Baez comes into this match with a ranking of 43 , while Diallo is ranked 35.

Baez vs Diallo Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Diallo has won 48% of points on his second serve, while Baez has won 45% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Diallo has won 24% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Baez has won 33%. The same stats for second serve return points are 40% and 47% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Diallo has been saving 55% of his breakpoints, and Baez has saved 51% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Diallo performs best on I.hard, winning 66% (W/L 47/24) and worse career win % on Clay, winning 53% (W/L 17/15). Baez performs best on Clay, winning 69% (W/L 229/102), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 14% (W/L 3/19).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Gabriel Diallo has converted 24% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Sebastian Baez has converted 36% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Sebastian Baez played David Goffin in the First round at the Cincinnati Open – Cincinnati and won 6-1 6-3 in 01:16:36 . Gabriel Diallo played Taylor Fritz in the Third round at the National Bank Open – Toronto and lost 6-4 6-2 in 01:15:46.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Sebastian Baez and Gabriel Diallo

Of their last 10 matches played, Baez has won 2, while Diallo has won 5. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Hard in recent matches, Baez has won 49% of his own 2nd serve points and 37% of return points, versus an average opponent rank of 127.79 , while Diallo has won 52% of his own 2nd serve points and 38% of return points, against an average opponent rank of 172.98.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Baez Vs Diallo

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Baez has won 18 titles in his career, while Gabriel Diallo has won 8 events. Baez has won 51% (32024 of 62287) of points played in his entire career, and Diallo has achieved 52% (19124 of 37133). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Baez has won 51% of tie breaks in his entire career (67 of 131), whereas Gabriel Diallo has won 56% (71 of 126). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Gabriel Diallo has an 66.49% probability of winning this match.

Sebastian Baez vs Gabriel Diallo Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Gabriel Diallo To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Sebastian Baez has a 33.51% chance of winning and Gabriel Diallo has a 66.49% chance of taking the victory. We tip Diallo to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

To see all live tennis scores for the Cincinnati Open – Cincinnati, go here.

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Sebastian Baez

• Baez vs Paul H2H () , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Baez vs Portero H2H () , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Baez vs Mannarino H2H () , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Baez vs Machac H2H () , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Galan vs Baez H2H () , could play in The Third round
• Sinner vs Baez H2H () , could play in The Third round

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Gabriel Diallo

• Diallo vs Paul H2H (undefined), could play in The Quarterfinals
• Diallo vs Portero H2H (undefined), could play in The Quarterfinals
• Diallo vs Mannarino H2H (undefined), could play in The Quarterfinals
• Diallo vs Machac H2H (undefined), could play in The Quarterfinals
• Galan vs Diallo H2H (undefined), could play in The Third round
• Sinner vs Diallo H2H (undefined), could play in The Third round