Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction – ATP Citi Open – 23rd July 2025 Best Bets

Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Sonego Prediction Head To Head Summary

Arnaldi vs Sonego Prediction:

Derived from odds to give us the implied probability from the moneyline, Arnaldi has a 55.25% chance to win this match.

Arnaldi → 1.89. Sonego → 1.81.

BE AWARE: To reveal edge and value bets for this match, check out the Matchstat.com expert prediction pick by clicking here.

Arnaldi vs Sonego Upcoming Match Details:

Arnaldi will play Sonego on Hard court in the Second round at the ATP Citi Open event in Washington Men’s Singles 2025 on 23rd July 2025.

Head-to-Head: Arnaldi 0-0 Sonego

The current Head to Head score is 0-0. Arnaldi comes into this match with a ranking of 44 , while Sonego is ranked 37.

Arnaldi vs Sonego Prediction, Tips & Picks Analysis:

• Second serve performance analysis: In matches leading up to this game, Sonego has won 46% of points on his second serve, while Arnaldi has won 48% and in historical match simulations this is a very important variable in analyzing the outcome.
• Returning game stats analysis: Leading up to this h2h matchup Sonego has won 25% of his opponent’s first serve points, while Arnaldi has won 27%. The same stats for second serve return points are 41% and 43% respectively which historical data suggests is very important when picking h2h betting tips.
• Performance under pressure prediction: Sonego has been saving 60% of his breakpoints, and Arnaldi has saved 56% which is a useful statistic for in-game betting predictions.
• Surface prediction: Sonego performs best on Clay, winning 59% (W/L 203/141) and worse career win % on Hard, winning 49% (W/L 81/84). Arnaldi performs best on Clay, winning 65% (W/L 132/70), and performs worse on I.hard, winning 38% (W/L 15/25).
• In play break point conversion prediction: Lorenzo Sonego has converted 36% of breakpoint opportunities in their recent games and Matteo Arnaldi has converted 26% of their chances to get the break which is an important stat in our betting tips system to pick the outcome.
• Last match played: In the match before this one, Matteo Arnaldi played Daniel Altmaier in the First round at the Citi Open – Washington and won 4-6 6-2 7-6(2) in 02:42:07 . Lorenzo Sonego played Ben Shelton in the Fourth round at the Wimbledon – London and lost 3-6 6-1 7-6(1) 7-5 in 03:05:00.

Head To Head Performance Stats Vs All Opponents

Unlimited match filtering is available on the detailed stats head to head page where you can also see current event performance stats.

Prediction Stats H2H Summary Of Matteo Arnaldi and Lorenzo Sonego

Of their last 10 matches played, Arnaldi has won 4, while Sonego has won 5. The Matchstat.com prediction algorithm uses about 190 variables. One very important stat for this match is on Hard in recent matches, Arnaldi has won 49% of his own 2nd serve points and 37% of return points, versus an average opponent rank of 81.6 , while Sonego has won 49% of his own 2nd serve points and 33% of return points, against an average opponent rank of 97.33.

Gemma@MatchStat

See below for our machine learning AI prediction for Arnaldi Vs Sonego

Career Performance Prediction Factors In Our Pick:

Arnaldi has won 6 titles in his career, while Lorenzo Sonego has won 10 events. Arnaldi has won 51% (26489 of 52387) of points played in his entire career, and Sonego has achieved 51% (45945 of 90517). A great statistic to predict performance under pressure is that, Arnaldi has won 56% of tie breaks in his entire career (70 of 124), whereas Lorenzo Sonego has won 52% (150 of 291). As per the image above, our algorithm is predicting Matteo Arnaldi has an 55.18% probability of winning this match.

Matteo Arnaldi vs Lorenzo Sonego Odds & Betting Tips
Our Prediction: Matteo Arnaldi To Get The Win

After analyzing hundreds of performance variables against all other players in their careers and recent form, as well as head to head performance stats, our pick indicates Matteo Arnaldi has a 55.18% chance of winning and Lorenzo Sonego has a 44.82% chance of taking the victory. We tip Arnaldi to get the win. Whether you should place a bet on this pick or not depends on the likely probability of the player winning relative to the odds

To see all live tennis scores for the Citi Open – Washington, go here.

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Matteo Arnaldi

• Arnaldi vs Rublev H2H () , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Tien H2H () , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Clar H2H () , could play in The Semifinals
• Arnaldi vs Fokina H2H () , could play in The Semifinals
• Vukic vs Arnaldi H2H () , could play in The Quarterfinals
• Fritz vs Arnaldi H2H () , could play in The Quarterfinals

Potential H2H Matches This Week For Lorenzo Sonego

• Sonego vs Rublev H2H (undefined), could play in The Semifinals
• Sonego vs Tien H2H (undefined), could play in The Semifinals
• Sonego vs Clar H2H (undefined), could play in The Semifinals
• Sonego vs Fokina H2H (undefined), could play in The Semifinals
• Vukic vs Sonego H2H (undefined), could play in The Quarterfinals
• Fritz vs Sonego H2H (undefined), could play in The Quarterfinals