NHL Preview And Prediction: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Betting Tips & Picks December 9, 2025

Who The Odds Favor: Tampa Bay Lightning to secure the win

• Derived via the sportsbook odds, Tampa Bay Lightning are favored to win in this game with a 54.35% chance to win. Is this a reliable prediction? Most likely, as Sportsbooks are highly accurate:
  Toronto Maple Leafs → 2.16
  Tampa Bay Lightning → 1.84

  Prediction	Chance Of Win
  Toronto Maple Leafs	46.3 %
  Tampa Bay Lightning	54.35 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to reveal our expert picks.

• Implied from the sportsbook odds, Tampa Bay Lightning are the favorite to win in regular time in this fixture with a 42.92% probability of winning. An accurate tip? Most likely, because Oddsmakers do their analysis:
  Toronto Maple Leafs Regular Time → 2.80
  Tampa Bay Lightning Regular Time → 2.33
  Draw Regular Time → 4.25

  Prediction	Chance Of RT
  Toronto Maple Leafs	35.71 %
  Tampa Bay Lightning	42.92 %
  Draw	23.53 %
  Above is calculated from odds. Login now to discover our expert picks.

• Evaluating the odds for player goal scoring implies there is a 17.12% expectation of the player scoring more than 0.5 goals, including extra time:
  Over 0.5 Player Goals (incl. OT) → 5.84

  Prediction	Chance Of O/U POG OT (0.5)
  Over	17.12 %
  Under	64.43 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to find out our expert predictions.

• Evaluating the odds for player performance indicates there is a 49.5% prediction of the player making higher than 1.5 shots on goal, including overtime:
  Over 1.5 Player Shots On Goal (incl. OT) → 2.02

  Prediction	Chance Of O/U SOG OT (1.5)
  Over	49.5 %
  Under	39.84 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to get our expert picks.

• Analyzing the odds for player performance suggests there is a 40% prediction of the player making over 2.5 shots on goal, including extra time:
  Over 2.5 Player Shots On Goal (incl. OT) → 2.50

  Prediction	Chance Of O/U SOG OT (2.5)
  Over	40 %
  Under	44.84 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to get our expert predictions.

• Assessing the odds for shots on goal implies there is a 43.86% expectation of the player making higher than 3.5 shots on goal, including extra time:
  Over 3.5 Player Shots On Goal (incl. OT) → 2.28

  Prediction	Chance Of O/U SOG OT (3.5)
  Over	43.86 %
  Under	53.08 %
  Above is calculated from odds. Login now to find out our expert predictions.

• Analyzing the odds for total goals implies a likelihood of a 63.53% prediction of this match having over 5.5 total points including overtime and penalties:
  Match Over 5.5 Total (incl. OT & penalties) → 1.57

  Prediction	Chance Of Total OT & Penalties (5.5)
  Over	63.53 %
  Under	40.32 %
  Above is calculated from odds. Login now to discover our expert predictions.

• Assessing the odds for total goals implies a likelihood of a 53.08% expectation of this game having higher than 6.5 total goals including extra time and penalties:
  Match Over 6.5 Total (incl. OT & penalties) → 1.88

  Prediction	Chance Of Total OT & Penalties (6.5)
  Over	53.08 %
  Under	50 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to get our expert picks.

• Assessing the odds for total points suggests there is a 30.4% prediction of this match having more than 7.5 total points including overtime and penalties:
  Match Over 7.5 Total (incl. OT & penalties) → 3.29

  Prediction	Chance Of Total OT & Penalties (7.5)
  Over	30.4 %
  Under	71.43 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to get our expert picks.

• Analyzing the odds for total points indicates a likelihood of a 19.69% expectation of this game having higher than 8.5 total points including extra time and penalties:
  Match Over 8.5 Total (incl. OT & penalties) → 5.08

  Prediction	Chance Of Total OT & Penalties (8.5)
  Over	19.69 %
  Under	80 %
  Above is calculated from odds. Login now to discover our expert predictions.

• Analyzing the odds for total points implies there is a 100% prediction of this game having more than 1.5 total points:
  Match Over 1.5 Points → 1.00

  Prediction	Chance Of Total Over/Under (1.5)
  Over	100 %
  Under	100 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to reveal our expert picks.

• Analyzing the odds for total points indicates there is a 100% prediction of this match having more than 2.5 total points:
  Match Over 2.5 Points → 1.00

  Prediction	Chance Of Total Over/Under (2.5)
  Over	100 %
  Under	100 %
  Above is calculated from odds. Login now to get our expert predictions.

• Evaluating the odds for points scored implies a likelihood of a 90.91% expectation of this match having over 3.5 total points:
  Match Over 3.5 Points → 1.10

  Prediction	Chance Of Total Over/Under (3.5)
  Over	90.91 %
  Under	14.81 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to get our expert picks.

• Analyzing the odds for points scored implies a likelihood of a 64.1% expectation of this match having higher than 5.5 total points scored:
  Match Over 5.5 Points → 1.56

  Prediction	Chance Of Total Over/Under (5.5)
  Over	64.1 %
  Under	40.82 %
  Above is implied from odds. Login now to discover our expert predictions.

To explore value bets so you can win big, check out our expert Ice Hockey betting picks at Matchstat.com. Uncover today’s best Ice Hockey value bets here.

Prediction Based On Head-2-Head: Toronto Maple Leafs to secure victory

Head To Head: Toronto Maple Leafs (7 – 3) Tampa Bay Lightning.
Toronto Maple Leafs to win. What’s the reasoning? For the most recent 10 H2H fixtures between them, Toronto Maple Leafs have the edge 7 – 3. Our head to head analysis starts from the battle they had in 2008. This implies that Toronto Maple Leafs should get the victory in this upcoming clash. The last fixture happened on the Wed, 09 Apr 25, where Toronto Maple Leafs achieved a 4 – 3 victory.

Will Tampa Bay Lightning break the pattern and win? The last match Tampa Bay Lightning got the better of Toronto Maple Leafs occurred on Wed, 17 Apr 24, indicating that they do have a chance.

Prediction Based On Recent Form: Tampa Bay Lightning to win

Examining recent form before this match, Toronto Maple Leafs lost facing Montréal Canadiens with a score of 1-2. Tampa Bay Lightning were beaten versus New York Islanders with a result of 0-2. Toronto Maple Leafs have won 5 of their recent 10 matches in all competitions, whereas Tampa Bay Lightning won 7 of their recent 10 matches against all teams, suggesting perhaps Tampa Bay Lightning are in better shape approaching this match.

A comparison of team trends provides crucial insight into current form so we can uncover winning bets

Versus All Teams Streaks:

• Tampa Bay Lightning: 3 Losses.
• Toronto Maple Leafs: First period winner in 4 of 5.

Only Head-2-Head Streaks:

• Toronto Maple Leafs: 4 Wins.
• Both teams: First period both scoring in 6 of 8.
• Both teams: More than 5.5 goals in 5 of 5.
• Both teams: More than 1.5 goals in first period in 6 of 8.

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Top Bookie Odds For The Fixture

Winner (incl. overtime and penalties)

1W

2.16

2W

1.84

Regular Time Result

1W

2.8

2W

2.33

X

4.25

Over Under Player Goals (incl. overtime)

> 0.5

5.84

< 0.5

1.552

Over Under Player Shots On Goal (incl. overtime)

> 1.5

2.02

< 1.5

2.51

> 2.5

2.5

< 2.5

2.23

> 3.5

2.28

< 3.5

1.884

Total (incl. overtime and penalties)

> 5.5

1.574

< 5.5

2.48

> 6.5

1.884

< 6.5

2

> 7.5

3.29

< 7.5

1.4

> 8.5

5.08

< 8.5

1.25

Total

> 1.5

1

< 1.5

1

> 2.5

1

< 2.5

1

> 3.5

1.1

< 3.5

6.75

> 5.5

1.56

< 5.5

2.45

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Tampa Bay Lightning Tips

Total 2.5 → Over looks to be a worthwhile punt → 1.00